Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Memphis 2026

Arakni, Marionette

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Clements

1st • 13-2-0

73%

Meta

+4.5

Perf

6.4

Surp

6.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Wray (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Franklin Brown (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zach Salada (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yuanji Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Evan Bridges (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

73% (11/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.5 Wins (8.5 expected, 13 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.31
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.17
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.50
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.61
R9	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.85
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.30
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

ZACHARY JENSEN

3rd • 10-4-0

93%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Lindley (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Randy Davis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Phillip Bourner (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs William Snead (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (7.9 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.03
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.23
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.19
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.42
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Oswald

5th • 11-2-0

92%

Meta

+4.2

Perf

6.1

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Chambers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emery Powell (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Evan Bridges (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.47
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.27
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.84
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arjun Garg

17th • 9-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

5.7

Surp

4.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daeton Harris (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Clair (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Phillip Kendall (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.04
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.41
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.31
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.66
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.89
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Yasunari Sakuma

25th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dakota Galloway (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Clair (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kyle James (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Chase Keeton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Barrett Goss (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.06
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.57
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.41
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.71
R12	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brenden Jones

49th • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aidan Ayers (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott Sharpe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Norberto Hernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Zachary Lyons (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs None ()

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Zachary Lyons

dropped • 6-5-0

91%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

5.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Franklin (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Cawyer (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Dandikar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Shane Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Brenden Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Robert Sexton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (6.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.05
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.09
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.28
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.39
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Cavin Saravanan

dropped • 5-5-0

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

5.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Will Matthews (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Kendall (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sarah Marley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.05
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.55
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.54
R8	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Jesse Kennon

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Shinn (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Robbie Valdez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.15
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.45
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Dyllon Dietz

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oscar Cotton (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Valentino (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Booher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sam Andersen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.39
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.23
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.82
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Parker Lusk

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sarah Marley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Young (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zackary Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Lee (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Robin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.82
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Patrick Tetrick

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Andersen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brooks Olree (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Preston (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None ()

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Fernandez (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Chad Wischmeyer (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Randy May

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mason Brantley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hannah Watts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Garrison (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Blaze Lewis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Sam Andersen

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Tetrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Logan McNeely (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Windham (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dagan White (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.23
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.31
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Travis Yeo

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chad Wischmeyer (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Majeski (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Chall (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Dandikar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rex Carroll

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aidan Ayers (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Grace (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Caleb Lolley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Cameron Gumm

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chase Keeton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Harris (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sarah Marley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Simpson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Diana Green (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Blaze Lewis

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs NICOLE HEENAN (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Stewart (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs BEN LADWIG (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Randy May (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Vargas

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zackary Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Pinzone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.