Arakni, Huntsman at Calling: Memphis 2026 — FaB-Results

Arakni, Huntsman

Arakni, Huntsman

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

51st • 6-6-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Valentino (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Katsu, the Wanderer

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roger Price (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 78:22

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brenden Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Pleiades, Superstar

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dagan White (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Austin Revera (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Valda, Seismic Impact

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Robert Sexton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (6.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.06
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.82
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R9	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

dropped • 4-2-1

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Joseph Hoyng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Ward (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle James (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Pleiades, Superstar

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Feng (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.82
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Jonathan Presley

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Mainhart (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 73:27

Valda, Seismic Impact

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Snead (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.07
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.99
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Nathaniel Lansangan

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Millwee (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 73:27

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Norberto Hernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Fai, Rising Rebellion

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trey Herring (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Casey Walker (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.07
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.69
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.91
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

dropped • 2-3-2

57%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

Valda, Seismic Impact

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Sexton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 35:65

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stephen Rollyson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Dash I/O

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Spiars (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Lauren Simpson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Viola Sun (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

Pleiades, Superstar

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alex Oltremari (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 60:40

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Payten Climer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.81

Andrew Griesdorn

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Larry Durham (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brendon Bloom (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Bourner (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Franklin (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Logan Duplessis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

Dash I/O

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Smithson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

Valda, Seismic Impact

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Douglas Jones (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Snead (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.01
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Badillo (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 46:54

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Fai, Rising Rebellion

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.51
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tayler Allen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Payten Climer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.45
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Ward (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

Fai, Rising Rebellion

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andy truong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 33:67

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Gibbs (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Uzuri, Switchblade

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josiah Avery (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Will Matthews (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs DJ Breithaupt ()

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cameron Gumm (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Hoss (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Valda, Seismic Impact

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Clair (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.29
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Johnathan Esquivel

dropped • 1-2-2

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Cody Mainhart (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Xavier Emery (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lauren Simpson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Draw	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Farrar (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Tetrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.1

Diff

Katsu, the Wanderer

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roger Price (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 78:22

Dash I/O

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Dash I/O

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Booher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Valda, Seismic Impact

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremie Maurina (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Pinzone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Blaze Lewis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Fai, Rising Rebellion

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mayszen Phillips (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.