Calling: London 2026 - Enigma (SAGE)

Enigma

35 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS

18th • 11-3-0

50%

Meta

+4.1

Perf

5.8

Surp

5.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Cowie (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joachim Hendriksen (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs David Dyson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

100:0

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (7/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.21
R9	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.96
R12	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R13	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03
R14	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Elaine Cao

26th • 10-3-1

71%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jack Raven (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tiago Victor Goncalves (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Gubau Jové (Dash) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Anatoly Mukhin (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs arthur conot (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.18
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R11	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R12	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.74
R13	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.34
R14	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jean Luka Zorko

38th • 10-3-1

64%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

6.1

Surp

5.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Barefoot (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Teague (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Draw vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

100:0

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Adrien Druart (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

R13

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (7.8 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.00
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.03
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.79
R10	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03
R12	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R13	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Milan Pěkný

dropped • 5-3-1

56%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Grosset (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Draw vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.09
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.02
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.20
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-

Noah Clark

dropped • 5-4-0

11%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christoph Dietrich (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Christensen (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Mc Namara (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Paul Conaty (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Michel Westermann (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

11% (1/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.35
R8	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R9	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sebastian Spicher

dropped • 4-4-1

56%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Thang (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs René Rost (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Trayler (Dash) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Draw vs Bader Altayyar (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Steven Greenspan (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Phil richards (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Paul A Wright (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Draw	✗	0.22	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Albertas pocius

dropped • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Walter Heidelberger (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Erik Steenhart (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sam Ball (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Frederik Kostka (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Oliver O'Connor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

100:0

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Marko Antonic (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2, favorite upset

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.23
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.29
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Loss	✓	0.98	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Ian Zhang

dropped • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sergiu Morar (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Hon-man Yau (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.00
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Adam Haigh

dropped • 3-6-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kera Banning (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Shelby Ward (Dash) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Richard Lythe ()

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Krzysztof Nowek (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R6	Silver Age		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.56
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Alix Czaplewska

dropped • 3-6-0

78%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marko Antonic (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs George Turner (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs André Ferreira (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pavlos Georgiou (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

10:90

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Shaheen Khoursheed (Dromai) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.00
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Paul A Wright

dropped • 3-6-0

78%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jagreen Lern (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Wilhelm Baars (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Towsey (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ross Chapman (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ethan Cheyney

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Harrod (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Schultz (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christian Jelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.13
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.02
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.22
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kamil "Kaka" Żerek

dropped • 3-4-1

62%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Callum Hancock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Gubau Jové (Dash) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Callum McMurray (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Edward Bayford (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Adam Sarrington

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steve Margetson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Leeming (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Layne Forrest (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Florian Kirsch (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Oscilio) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.30

Matthew Sarrington

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Haill (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Shaheen Khoursheed (Dromai) - Expected: 11:89, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

100:0

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Win	✗	0.89	1.36
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03

Aaron Heimbeck

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christian Sal (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.17
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Athena Vogel

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marko Martic (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Shubert (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Birtwell (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Guillermo Regueiro

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller ()

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Austin (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.01
R3	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R4	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Robbert Valkeneers

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aria Loog (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Kinnett (Dromai) - Expected: 11:89

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nefra Greywulf (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.02
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Josh Keys

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Natasha Collins (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Carballido (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.74
R3	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Adam Cartwright

dropped • 0-6-0

50%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alessandro Berganton (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Callum Young (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Juliane Henning (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Brad Stapleton

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Wilhelm Baars (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Reuben Thomas (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Collins (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Carl Boyle

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Konrad Paziewski (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Isabella Paulke (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Phil richards (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Joseph Connan

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben Potter (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Corie Mcgowan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Conaty (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.77
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Malyk Höfle

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jamie Alison (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Harbinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Steele (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brecht Van Reusel (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Michael Neugebauer

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stuart McKeown (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

100:0

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03
R5	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Ralph Schlauri

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Harry McAlpine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kendal Cannon (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alba Sanz (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.98
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

robin gasparini

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oliver O'Connor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Demetrio Bori (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.44
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Sebastien Lebaillif

dropped • 0-4-1

80%

Meta

-2.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Valerie Tompkins (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tony Colonna-Cesari (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Isaac (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Alexandre MENAGE (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Draw	✓	0.84	-

Frederik Kostka

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lillie Cutler (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Albertas pocius (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patryk Gułaś

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michiel Flaton (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Austin (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-

Simon MacDonald

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Baxendale (Dash) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Vincent Fasquel

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patryk Gułaś (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Greenspan (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs rogier De wever (Dromai) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Ivan Grimaldo

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Smyth (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Devos (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Petry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Kera Banning

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dávid István Kovács (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben McConnochie (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.