Rhinar at Calling: London 2026

Rhinar

29 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

45th • 9-5-0

43%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

6.6

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lauren Zacharakis (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Buntrock (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R12

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (6/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.70
R10	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R11	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Michael Hamilton

71st • 8-6-0

43%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Unwin (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R12

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (6/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.67
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R11	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Carlos Gutiérrez González

dropped • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Henry Cooke (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Leonel Torrealba (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Christie (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hugo Platret (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lloyd Forsyth (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.78
R9	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emad Kashy

dropped • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Edward Harris (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hemal Patel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Marko Antonic (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Eugene C

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Olivia Farrimond (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Brookes (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lori Vanderhulst (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Christie (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Clark

dropped • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jyry Soinio

dropped • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adriano Izzi (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chris Legg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Samo Planinc (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Thomas Wilson

dropped • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Stürmer (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Felipe Thomaz (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Connor McGrath (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jamie Alison (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Harbinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Oli Cornish (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.18
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Hawkins

dropped • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs cory macewan (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andy Dand (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adrian Isaac (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Erik Steenhart (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Rhys Francis (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.18
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Karolis Kriauciunas

dropped • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Artur Hubert (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bader Altayyar (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs arthur conot (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Péter Kökény (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Wilson (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.92
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ha-Lim Chang

dropped • 3-6-0

56%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kris Mersol (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Strother (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Kitsos (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Price (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Steven Greenspan (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Robert Mueller

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ali Ashkanany (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Callum Hancock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Josh Keys (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lloyd Forsyth (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Adam Harbinson

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs James Naylor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Wilson (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matiss Cikota (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Erik Baalhuis

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tadhg Conaty (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Potter (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.33
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Tibor Madaras

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Akers (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Paino (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Neugebauer (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bernhard Hinna (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R4	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.16
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Toby Beckham

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Grey (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matiss Cikota (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Phil richards (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.96
R6	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Adam Collins

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Berry ()

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pietro Saccarini (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brad Stapleton (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christopher Iaali

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Oli Cornish (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dave Kerr (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.98
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

James Adams

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Finn Macdonald (Dorinthea) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Maniscalco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jagreen Lern (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.90
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Erik Steenhart

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tommaso Turchi (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Albertas pocius (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Fin Price (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Florian Kirsch (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs John Hawkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Strother

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ha-Lim Chang (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Jones (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Christie (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Liam Blakeman

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs André Ferreira (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher de Bruijn (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs anthony blakeman (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Kouřil (Dorinthea) - Expected: 36:64

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs cory macewan (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Feng

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jamie Alison (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Archer (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rob Thoen (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Paul Conaty

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Goldfinger (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Petry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Connan (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.54
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pietro Saccarini

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sam Rayment (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Collins (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vincent Lonnee (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Sal (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Nichols (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Barefoot (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Steele (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Daniel Scupham

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jack Fejer

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Micklewright (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Mc Gowan (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Sönke Heins

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Richard Lythe ()

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Turner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.