Calling: London 2026 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

30 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Niels Debosschere

3rd • 13-3-0

44%

Meta

+5.9

Perf

8.7

Surp

8.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mark Duro (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Vasilis Kirlis (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Jose Alves (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R15 SAGE

Round 15: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R16 SAGE

Round 16: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (7/16 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 13 actual)

Surprise

8.7 total deviation

Difficulty

8.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.53
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R10	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R11	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.80
R12	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R13	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.52
R15	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.63
R16	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Sammy Weckx

5th • 12-3-0

47%

Meta

+5.3

Perf

7.8

Surp

7.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Leeming (Olympia) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Baker (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tommaso Turchi (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Adam Tuček (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

65:35

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

20:80

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R15 SAGE

Round 15: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

47% (7/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

7.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.57
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.16
R11	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.49
R12	Silver Age	Terra	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.74
R13	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R14	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.14
R15	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Florian Vanbrakel

42nd • 10-4-0

64%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

7.5

Surp

6.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jamie Youngs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jack Raven (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

7.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.24
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.96
R12	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.04
R13	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.14
R14	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Matthew Duggan

51st • 9-5-0

64%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

7.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mathis Reteuna (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Petter Olsson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Dávid István Kovács (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Ethan Krogsgard (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

7.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.78
R10	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R13	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.94
R14	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Richard Schröder

78th • 8-6-0

71%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Wichink Kruit (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Vittor Matiazo (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.99
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R13	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.53
R14	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Emlyn Ingram

dropped • 6-6-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

5.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs ethan cull (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hon-man Yau (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Antonis Kazouris (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs arthur conot (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (6.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R10	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Andrew Trubshaw

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nefra Greywulf (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Junxian Xie (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lorenz Krassnig (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Callum McMurray (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs James Naylor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.29
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.92
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Greg Nichols

dropped • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Reuben Thomas (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tadhg Conaty (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.68
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.76
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Maciej Szawica

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Wichink Kruit (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Anthony De Vincentis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Pattenden (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sergiu Morar (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 85:15

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.25
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.55
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.24

Raj Parikh

dropped • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hon-man Yau (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Samuel Braben (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.87
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Timothy Worrall

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Karanjeet Singh (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joel Rencen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christian Sal (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Oli Cornish (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joachim Hendriksen (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.38
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Dayvid Kayal

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Carlota Fernández (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Thoen (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Scupham (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Barefoot (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phil richards (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs René Rost (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.97
R6	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.52
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Fabian Schunn

dropped • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bjarki már Ingólfsson (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam West (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jagreen Lern (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.68
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.80
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Panayot Andreev

dropped • 1-8-0

78%

Meta

-4.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Karanjeet Singh (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jose vicente Rodriguez Palazon (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Pattenden (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Marcel Schlicher (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kevin Cowie (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emel Walsh (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Buntrock (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Towsey (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rob Thoen (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.26
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.31
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.86
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tomas Fernandes ()

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Koksch (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kane Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kris Mersol

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ha-Lim Chang (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Italo Molina (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Koller (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Thang (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.57
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Christie

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Jovic (Dromai) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Strother (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

James Flynn

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Migliavacca (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Iles (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Dromai) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs George Keys (Dromai) - Expected: 85:15

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Samuel Curnow

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Hazell (Olympia) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mark Duro (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.86
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Frazer Eastman

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Terra) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Maniscalco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Frederick Middleton

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs riccardo battaglia (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrius Pečiulis (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.97
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Stevie Van Overtveldt

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Karanjeet Singh (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Louis Van Keymeulen

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Damian Rusin (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Brewer (Terra) - Expected: 22:78

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adriano Izzi (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Oscar Magaldi (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Terra	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Tess van Dartel

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lillie Cutler (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Stürmer (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Andy Dand

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kacper Fleszar (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Hawkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Victor Cardoso (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

João Marques

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Gubau Jové (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Artur Hubert (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Salina Vaes (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robert Robinson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Salina Vaes

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Raven (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs João Marques (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs James Thourgood (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathaniel Payne

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lori Vanderhulst (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Louis Sice

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Callum Elcock (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.