Ira, Crimson Haze at Calling: London 2026

Ira, Crimson Haze

47 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gints Dreimanis

15th • 11-3-0

64%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

6.9

Surp

6.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Payne (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Dávid István Kovács (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.10
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R8	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.61
R10	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R11	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R12	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.62
R13	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Mattia Vigliarolo

28th • 10-4-0

57%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

7.1

Surp

4.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Towsey (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs John Christensen (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Valerie Tompkins (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Dávid István Kovács (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (8/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

7.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.75
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.73
R12	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R13	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Noè Giussani

29th • 10-4-0

57%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

6.3

Surp

4.6

Diff

95:5

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tadhg Conaty (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Ethan Krogsgard (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

57% (8/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.01
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.18
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.92
R11	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.03
R12	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R13	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R14	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.80

Matthew Kenworthy

30th • 10-4-0

79%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Phan Nguyen Nguyen (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Austin (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matiss Cikota (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.83
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.52
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.25
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Viet Pham

31st • 10-4-0

64%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

6.9

Surp

5.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Conor Rourke (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Urban (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Artur Hubert (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Filipe Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R9	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.59
R13	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Daniel Mulato

54th • 9-5-0

64%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dávid István Kovács (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R10	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R12	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R13	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.67
R14	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Laurens Van der Beek

66th • 9-5-0

57%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Howard (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Wyn Davies-Batista (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Louis Guillot (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Steffen Bauer (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

57% (8/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.33
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R9	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R11	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R13	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.87
R14	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Jack Warren

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Italo Molina (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Frazer Eastman (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

95:5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Indigo Bosworth (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Chris Karrandjas (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.05
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.56
R8	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R9	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.54

Adam Hove

dropped • 5-3-1

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rokas Pocius (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Grey (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Evan McTernan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Draw vs Marko Antonic (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.64
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-

James Naylor

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Austin (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Elliott Chacksfield (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.65
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Piergiorgio Villani

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sam Ball (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tanel Tammiste

dropped • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Przemysław Smoleń (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.13
R8	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Bader Altayyar

dropped • 4-4-1

89%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chris Thomson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Draw vs Sebastian Spicher (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Harrod (Levia) - Expected: 62:38

95:5

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Draw	✓	0.78	-
R7	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.08
R9	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

August Rokkanen

dropped • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Keys (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.65
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Christel David

dropped • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ed Kennan (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs André Ferreira (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bader Altayyar (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brad Stapleton (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Eddy (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Richard Lythe ()

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Marcus Archer (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Corie Mcgowan

dropped • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Connan (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ed Cardall (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jagreen Lern (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.00
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.17
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Juliane Henning

dropped • 2-7-0

89%

Meta

-3.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Birtwell (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Harrod (Levia) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Louis Ades (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Niklas Jansson (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Stuart McKeown (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jagreen Lern

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Austin (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paul A Wright (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Baxendale (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs James Adams (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Youngjin Ki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Corie Mcgowan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Brandon Turner

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

95:5

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kieran Waters (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sönke Heins (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Baxendale (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs John Christensen (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Brecht Van Reusel (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.03
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jamie Costello

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Cordrey (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vittor Matiazo (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michiel Flaton (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Maciej Graszek

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kane Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ella Brown (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

95:5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jared Wyce (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Julia B. (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jack Raven (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.07
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Stefan Hilderink

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Collins (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

95:5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tom Jones (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.07
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Oliver O'Connor

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs robin gasparini (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cody Hodkinson (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sara van Reeken (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Albertas pocius (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.59
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Harry McAlpine

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Connop (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Jamie Youngs

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Gubau Jové (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.09
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Jason Kelly

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Cooke (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Neil Jones (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs ISRAEL GONZALEZ (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Paul Hyman

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Cruz (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Carl Meisner (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Youngjin Ki

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs cory macewan (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Callum Elcock (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jagreen Lern (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Price (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

ethan cull

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

95:5

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Florian Anger (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aron Trausti (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Paino (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Krogsgard (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.87
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Junxian Xie

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Pierre-André Joly

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Mann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Hawkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

95:5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6, favorite upset

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Loss	✓	0.94	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.35

Adam Iles

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tommaso Turchi (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Chris Legg

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Callum Hancock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luca Greenspan (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Maciej Walenczykowski

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Noah Greenwood (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Micheal Porter

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rachel Huggins (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Trayler (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Marcus Archer (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Sara van Reeken

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steven Greenspan (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Haill (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Oliver O'Connor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Niklas Jansson (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.52
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

David Alfonso

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samo Planinc (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Rayment (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Carlota Fernández (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Edward Catling (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Anthony De Vincentis

dropped • 0-5-0

80%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Ades (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Mann

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Carballido (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Hamish Dean (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Alexandre Varone

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Felipe Thomaz (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mikael Lundberg (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

David Petry

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Conaty (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Glenn Rosario II

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Conor Rourke (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Krogsgard (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Connan (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Jaka Burnik

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adrian Wilde (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adrien Druart (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

stephen Mcauliffe

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christopher de Bruijn (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mihailo Bulajic

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Lucas Balog

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Rachel Huggins

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Micheal Porter (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.