Briar at Calling: London 2026

Briar

142 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Paul van Gijssel

1st • 14-3-0

88%

Meta

+5.3

Perf

7.7

Surp

6.7

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Paweł Romanowski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ethan Krogsgard (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R15 SAGE

Round 15: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R16 SAGE

Round 16: Win vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R17 SAGE

Round 17: Win vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

88% (15/17 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.3 Wins (8.7 expected, 14 actual)

Surprise

7.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.41
R8	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.21
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.59
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.53
R12	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R14	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R15	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.93
R16	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.76
R17	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Matthew Foulkes

9th • 11-3-0

79%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

5.7

Surp

4.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul Farnell (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bernhard Hinna (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Finn Macdonald (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.23
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.62
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R12	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.54
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Kim Scheerer

12th • 11-3-0

71%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

6.3

Surp

5.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Pattenden (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pol Pérez Ribera (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jakub Bystřický (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alex Price (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Callum Elcock (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Jose Alves (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R9	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.41
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.71
R12	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R13	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Sean Knowelden

13th • 11-3-0

93%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

6.2

Surp

5.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Danny Halstad (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Collins (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Brecht Van Reusel (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (8.0 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.23
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R9	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.41
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.97
R14	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Enes Findik

17th • 11-3-0

79%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

6.1

Surp

5.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul A Wright (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Louis Guillot (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (7.9 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.23
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.52
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.58
R12	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.36
R13	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.14
R14	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Aaron Boyhan

20th • 10-4-0

50%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

6.3

Surp

4.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Schultz (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (7/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.79
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R11	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Ethan Krogsgard

23rd • 10-4-0

64%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Callum McMurray (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs ethan cull (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.27
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.70
R13	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.69
R14	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jimmy Nguyen

27th • 10-4-0

79%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

7.0

Surp

4.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brian Atchley (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steven O'Reilly (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Adam Tuček (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

7.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R13	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.79
R14	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Cedric Chartraire

34th • 10-4-0

79%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

6.6

Surp

4.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tom Cordrey (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Baxendale (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonas Wust (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (7.8 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.19
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.75
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R12	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Lewis Foulkes

36th • 10-4-0

71%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

6.6

Surp

5.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jamie Youngs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Carl Boyle (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Valerie Tompkins (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.68
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.50
R12	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.14
R14	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Dávid István Kovács

48th • 9-5-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

7.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kera Banning (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs George Keys (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

7.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R7	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R12	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R14	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Tadej Krmac

50th • 9-5-0

71%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.2

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bader Altayyar (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Corie Mcgowan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Adam Urban (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R11	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.99
R12	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Alexandru Cucereanu

61st • 9-5-0

79%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

6.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Haroldas Stravinskas (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

20:80

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R8	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R12	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.07
R13	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.42

Mathew Davies

63rd • 9-5-0

57%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

6.2

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jose vicente Rodriguez Palazon (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ian Zhang (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

57% (8/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R9	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.64
R12	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Szabolcs Egri

65th • 9-5-0

71%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

6.9

Surp

4.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bill Fox (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Filipe Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs James Naylor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Theo Maggs (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.16
R14	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Theo Maggs

74th • 8-6-0

57%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

7.6

Surp

4.4

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Petter Olsson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jakob Pogačnik Souvent (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (8/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

7.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R9	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.69
R11	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

arthur conot

76th • 8-6-0

64%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs René Rost (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 85:15

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thorge von Bostel (Boltyn) - Expected: 71:29

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Adrien Druart (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29

20:80

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.09
R6	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.10
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Boltyn	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.64
R12	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R13	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.46
R14	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Jonny Chapman

77th • 8-6-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

6.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bernhard Hinna (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Hazell (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Toon Vertommen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Filipe Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.11
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.70
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Dan Moldovan

82nd • 7-7-0

93%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

6.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Camron Lowe (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tiago Victor Goncalves (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tommaso Turchi (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (7.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.23
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R11	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R13	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R14	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Filipe Coutinho

83rd • 7-7-0

79%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

6.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Frederick Middleton (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joris Verhelst (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (7.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.52
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R12	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Steffen Bauer

84th • 7-7-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

6.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Arnold (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Lux (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Artur Hubert (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Anatoly Mukhin (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Adam Urban (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (7.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.11
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.48
R10	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R14	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Bernardo José Alves

dropped • 8-5-0

54%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

6.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs George Turner (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefano Berian (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Antonis Kazouris (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Dávid István Kovács (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Adam Tuček (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.65
R9	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.74
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Mert Gezgin

dropped • 7-5-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Price (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tobias Lee (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam West (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Seb Ball (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R12	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Ian Holland

dropped • 6-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

5.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (6.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Giani Gabriel Dinu

dropped • 6-2-1

78%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nefra Greywulf (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Oleg Zabalujev (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Maik Wiesen (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jack Bradbury (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rafa Lopez Martinez (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.32
R9	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.25

Aaron Eddy

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Spierin (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hemal Patel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Adshead (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Edward Harris (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Wyn Davies-Batista (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Andrea Mengucci

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexandre MENAGE (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Richard Lythe ()

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zak Mc Gowan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam West (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R4	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ed Cardall

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Güntekin Koc ()

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Corie Mcgowan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Machi C (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Edward Catling (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tony Colonna-Cesari (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jakob Pogačnik Souvent (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.32
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R9	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Etienne BARIOULET

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Diran Bajwa (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs George Jones (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.66
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Finlay Freir

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Petry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thorge von Bostel (Boltyn) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Julia B. (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.15
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Joscha Amann

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cian Cambridge (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Dyson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Adrien Druart (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.68
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Kane Wilson

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Bradbury (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aron Trausti (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Gubau Jové (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.29
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.63
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.93
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Paweł Romanowski

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chris Legg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Victor Cardoso (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Philip van Donselaar

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zak Mc Gowan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Leonel Torrealba (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jose Alves (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Finn Macdonald (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Rafał Liwerski

dropped • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Migliavacca (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aria Loog (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rob Thoen (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thorge von Bostel (Boltyn) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.05
R5	Silver Age	Boltyn	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tigran Grigorian

dropped • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tim Coates (Viserai) - Expected: 82:18

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Junxian Xie (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.79
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.60
R6	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Toon Vertommen

dropped • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alessandro Berganton (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Pierre Canali

dropped • 5-2-2

78%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Worrall (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Smyth (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Albertas pocius (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Isaac Murray (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Draw vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Draw	✗	0.19	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-

Bartosz Ziemba

dropped • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Toon Vertommen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Adams (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Konrad Paziewski (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Urban (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Matiss Cikota (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R8	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Bastian Henneberg

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Oli Cornish (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Carlota Fernández (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Albertas pocius (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.63
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Christian Bach

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Archer (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tadhg Conaty (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Diran Bajwa (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Davide Giacca

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Clayton Gowen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sebastien Lebaillif (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Steven Greenspan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonas Benzarti

dropped • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrik Koller (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marko Antonic (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.98
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kacper Fleszar

dropped • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andy Dand (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luca Greenspan (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kyoshiro Takegahara

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jack Schwab (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brecht Van Reusel (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Connor Hetherington (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Hugo Croizet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kacper Fleszar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Demetrio Bori (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lucas Dutailly

dropped • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jack Fejer (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Finn Macdonald (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Manuel Wachouschek

dropped • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Harry McAlpine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs robert john hall (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs René Rost (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.22
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Marc Bonnet

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lorenz Krassnig (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michiel Flaton (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Marcus Archer (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.38
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthias Verbeeck

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Louise Roberts (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Wilson (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Maik Wiesen (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.56
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Max Escaler

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tony Gleeson (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stefano Berian (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Braben (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Owen Howdon

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sönke Heins (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pietro Saccarini (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Collins (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs André Ferreira (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Gioele Pedalino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Peter Bråss

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marcel Schlicher (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ella Brown (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gioele Pedalino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Rafael Salsa

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

5.1

Surp

3.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Micheal Porter (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rhys Francis (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Demetrio Bori (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tommaso Turchi (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.53
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.84
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Alan Bainbridge

dropped • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Noah Greenwood (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pavlos Georgiou (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Demetrio Bori

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Steven Greenspan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs George Keys (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.73
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gioele Pedalino

dropped • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Teague (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Adshead (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Muir

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Wilson (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs arthur conot (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pietro Saccarini (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan DUMONT

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robert Wernecke (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tess van Dartel (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Junxian Xie (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tsunoda Shingo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Krzysztof Nowek

dropped • 4-5-0

56%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Jovic (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jose vicente Rodriguez Palazon (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Stuart McKeown (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.27
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.09
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Steven Greenspan

dropped • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Demetrio Bori (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sara van Reeken (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Hadfield (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Pattenden (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Harrod (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ha-Lim Chang (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.37
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Thomas Carreira

dropped • 3-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Balog (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Harrod (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alix Czaplewska (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Corie Mcgowan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Richard Lythe ()

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	Silver Age		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Fogg

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nolan Varone (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefano Berian (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Callum Elcock (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tommaso Turchi (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Florian Schmidt

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rowan Webb (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Vittor Matiazo (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Isaac Murray

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Spencer Baker (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.37
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Phil Mead

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Raphaël Caliendo Spera

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Indigo Bosworth (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs MARC JOSÉ VENTURA (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Clayton Gowen

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Grey (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Vincent Wichink Kruit (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Diran Bajwa

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Lovelace (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Towsey (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 85:15

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jordi De Jonghe

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gioele Pedalino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Bradbury (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	2.03
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Lewis Pratt

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Hadfield (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Arnold (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

René Schep

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dave Kerr (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs riccardo battaglia (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adrien Druart (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.35
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Seb Ball

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rowan Webb (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Grosset (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Christensen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.01
R4	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Srdja Stetic-Kozic

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs None ()

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tsunoda Shingo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jakob Pogačnik Souvent (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Frederick Middleton (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Samuel Carballido (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Clément Maillet

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Johnathan Carrillo (Viserai) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chris Karrandjas (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Lorenzo Paino

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Mc Namara (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs ethan cull (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brecht Van Reusel (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Przemysław Smoleń

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Leonel Torrealba (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Friday (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wojciech Ruciński (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Karrandjas (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.35
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Péter Kökény

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Vanbecelaere (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Wilde (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.82
R6	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Rodrigo Iñiguez

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Quek ()

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rhyce Clark (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kyle Mullings (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tsunoda Shingo

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Mc Gowan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Louis Ades (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Lonnee (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tsz Shing So

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Debling (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Gubau Jové (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Christoph Dietrich

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Leeming (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs cory macewan (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Hugo Croizet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Carl Meisner (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lorenz Krassnig (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Adam Haill

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sara van Reeken (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Adam West

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs George Turner (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexander Heilling

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thierry Entringer (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.96
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Andrew Irvine

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Knapp (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mihailo Bulajic (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tess van Dartel (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.02
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Benjamin Van donkelaar

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs robert john hall (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rafa Lopez Martinez (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Edward Catling

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chris Willis (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ed Cardall (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hugo Croizet

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jared Wyce (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Thang (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christoph Dietrich (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Goode-Hamy

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrik Koller (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

John Christensen

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Seb Ball (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Turner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Karanjeet Singh

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Worrall (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Panayot Andreev (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R6	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Leonardo Poppa

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Schultz (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Panayot Andreev (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.96
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Noah Devos

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dominic McKenzie (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pol Pérez Ribera (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marko Martic (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michel Westermann (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Nefra Greywulf

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jack Nichols (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan McVean (Viserai) - Expected: 82:18

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs James Thourgood (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Viserai	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

gabriel głowicki

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Christensen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mark Smith (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nolan Varone (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Leeming (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Asger Thomsen Brem

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.42
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Daniel Ferguson

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs rogier De wever (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tony Gleeson (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adriano Izzi (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dave Kerr

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jack Mountford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

George Jones

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adam Friday (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.86
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Haroldas Stravinskas

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Henry Cooke

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Phan Nguyen Nguyen (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 85:15

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Kevin Sharpes

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sam Rayment (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jack Raven (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Demetrio Bori (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.65
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Thang

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hugo Croizet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Price (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kris Mersol (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Lucas Sobral

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Harry McAlpine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.98
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Mason O'Mara

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sam Rayment (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.86
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Matthew McInnis

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Berganton (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jamie Youngs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Michael Grey

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Neil Jones (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Clayton Gowen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patryk Wasielewski

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Miroslav Mojik (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matiss Cikota (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Rasmus Møller

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Reuben Thomas (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Rhyan Bromell

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Paino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tadhg Conaty

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.42
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Tiago Victor Goncalves

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ervin Bešić (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Goldfinger (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Igor Koutzevitch (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Wyn Davies-Batista

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michel Westermann (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luca Greenspan (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Eddy (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zach Evans

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matiss Cikota (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lauren Zacharakis (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tsunoda Shingo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zak Mc Gowan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tsunoda Shingo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jack Fejer (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jack Schwab

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs James Brookes (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs René Rost (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jose vicente Rodriguez Palazon (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ali Ashkanany (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.48

Spencer Baker

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Larsen (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs rogier De wever (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alba Sanz

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Christian Sal

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Worrall (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Connor McGrath

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas van den Berg (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Wilson (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

David Gómez

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Red Itärinne (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Natasha Collins (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Frederick Middleton (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Ilya Polkovnichenko

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub Kouřil (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dave Kerr (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lori Vanderhulst

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Payne (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Alves (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Natasha Collins

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Keys (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs John Kitsos (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nolan Varone

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Layne Forrest (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs gabriel głowicki (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Paolo Auria

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 85:15

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Karrandjas (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Patrick Mc Namara

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Paino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sam Ball (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Reuben Thomas

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Wernecke (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brad Stapleton (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Theo Mussy

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Wust (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nuno Amaral (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Clayton Gowen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tom Escoffier

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Strother (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Walter Heidelberger

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Albertas pocius (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

John Kitsos

dropped • 0-3-1

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Louise Roberts (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ha-Lim Chang (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Natasha Collins (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Felipe Thomaz

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandre Varone (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Wilson (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Michael Lackner

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrius Pečiulis (Lexi) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Andrea Zaffalon

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Cohea (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rhys Francis (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Cian Cambridge

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marcel Schlicher (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.25

Ryan Goldfinger

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul Conaty (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Taylor (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tiago Victor Goncalves (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Chirulescu

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Barefoot (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Lorenzo Latino

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Péter Kökény (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Mark Smith

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs gabriel głowicki (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pavlos Georgiou (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jordan Akers

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Matt Townsend

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.