Calling: London 2026 - Vynnset (SAGE)

Vynnset

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Alves

19th • 10-4-0

50%

Meta

+3.8

Perf

7.5

Surp

6.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jeppe Madsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lori Vanderhulst (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs André Ferreira (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Antonis Kazouris (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (7/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

7.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.16
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.33
R9	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R13	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jonas Stoberock

32nd • 10-4-0

57%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

6.8

Surp

5.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Victoria Lia (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Murray (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jamie Costello (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 19:81

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Adam Tuček (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

57% (8/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.11
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R11	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R14	Silver Age	Iyslander	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Stefan Manole

75th • 8-5-1

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

6.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bill Fox (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hugo Croizet (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Draw vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Dávid István Kovács (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80

R14

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Adam Urban (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (7/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.18
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R11	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.00
R13	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R14	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

dropped • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Youngjin Ki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jack Brewer (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Leeming (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.91
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Rob Catton

dropped • 3-5-0

38%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adrien Druart (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Diran Bajwa (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Rhys Francis (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.59
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Artur Hubert

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs João Marques (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ervin Bešić (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Steffen Bauer (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.74
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.23
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Darius Zacharakis

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Baxendale (Dash) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ed Kennan (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Vittor Matiazo (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matiss Cikota (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Buntrock (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ha-Lim Chang (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Corie Mcgowan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Alexander King

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Duro (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lubos Vanicek (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Callum Hancock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexandre MENAGE (Iyslander) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Maximilian Klein

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Jovic (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Connop (Iyslander) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Price (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Peter Smyth

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Melvin Valderrey

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Baker (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anthony De Vincentis (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander King (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Victor Cardoso

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oleg Zabalujev (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andy Dand (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Aaron Nichols

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michel Westermann (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Lovelace

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Clark (Iyslander) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Diran Bajwa (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Thourgood (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Hamish Chisholm Brown

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Youngjin Ki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.