Dorinthea at Calling: London 2026

Dorinthea

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kiran Lee

2nd • 14-3-0

94%

Meta

+5.1

Perf

8.0

Surp

6.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Phan Nguyen Nguyen (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Magne Gjennestad (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Josh Keys (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R13

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Jose Alves (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R15 SAGE

Round 15: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

R16

R16 SAGE

Round 16: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R17 SAGE

Round 17: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

94% (16/17 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.1 Wins (8.9 expected, 14 actual)

Surprise

8.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.27
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.30
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R8	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.47
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.53
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.59
R11	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R13	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R14	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R15	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.76
R16	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.94
R17	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Pierre-Nicolas Perrin

5th • 12-3-0

93%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Juan Chacon (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

90:10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R15 SAGE

Round 15: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

93% (14/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (9.3 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.03
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.47
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.53
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.75
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.11
R11	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R12	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.22
R15	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Nguyen Giang

37th • 10-4-0

100%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

6.8

Surp

5.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Baker (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Adam Urban (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R13

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R8	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Juan Chacon

49th • 9-5-0

93%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Haroldas Stravinskas (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ian Zhang (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Alves (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (8.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.08
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.15
R10	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.07
R13	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Liam Holden

55th • 9-5-0

79%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Indigo Bosworth (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Baker (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Samo Planinc (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kane Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

90:10

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Julien Desuter (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (7.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.13
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R10	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.13
R12	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.34
R14	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Antonis Kazouris

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Thang (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jose Alves (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kacper Fleszar (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.15
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Jakub Koenner

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Nichols (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Italo Molina (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Layne Forrest (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.80
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R8	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Jason Rolfe

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Price (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Phil richards (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tobias Lee (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kane Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.11
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.13
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Samuel Braben

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Felipe Thomaz (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rafa Lopez Martinez (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jack Raven (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.80
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.15
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.23

Will Melyn

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chad Heuschober (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Samo Planinc (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonas Wust (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Eddy (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tommaso Turchi (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Finn Macdonald

dropped • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Adams (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Micklewright (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Paul Farnell (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Kevin Cowie

dropped • 2-7-0

100%

Meta

-3.3

Perf

5.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Birtwell (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Louise Roberts (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Carlota Fernández (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Stuart McKeown (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adrian Isaac (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs None ()

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Panayot Andreev (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Loss	✓	0.89	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R7	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Thomas van den Berg

dropped • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Junxian Xie (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Connor McGrath (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Shelby Ward (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rafa Lopez Martinez (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Anton Cid Mejias

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Holland (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tom Jones (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Hills

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs anthony blakeman (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lori Vanderhulst (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tom Jones (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ian Zhang (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jonas Wust

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Julien Desuter (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Callum McMurray (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joachim Hendriksen (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Alex Chițu

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kendal Cannon (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Péter Kökény (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kit Valentine (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.14
R6	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Davide Quaglio

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Steffen Bauer (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jakub Kouřil

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mike Williams (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Liam Blakeman (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Red Itärinne (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Hemal Patel

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phil richards (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Eddy (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Fredrik Bill (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

David Baker

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Greenwood

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Birtwell (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.