Calling: London 2026 - Valda Brightaxe (SAGE)

Valda Brightaxe

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Neseyif-Deakin

11th • 11-3-0

50%

Meta

+4.4

Perf

6.3

Surp

5.8

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Scupham (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Braben (Dorinthea) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

20:80

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

50% (7/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.53
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.23
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.26
R10	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R12	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R13	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R14	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Max Karstenberg

35th • 10-4-0

71%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

6.2

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Clark (Iyslander) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R12	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.97
R14	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Aleix Córdoba

47th • 9-5-0

64%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tess van Dartel (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paweł Romanowski (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thorge von Bostel (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.17
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R12	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R13	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R14	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Harle

57th • 9-5-0

64%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Dorinthea) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Haroldas Stravinskas (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Machi C (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R13	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.45
R14	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tim Edwards

dropped • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lloyd Forsyth (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Turner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Connan (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.19
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.70
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.38
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

David Dyson

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hamish Dean (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jakub Bystřický (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Thomas Neseyif-Deakin

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tobias Lee (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sergiu Morar (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Clayton Gowen (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.87
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alan Williams

dropped • 3-3-1

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Jorgen Fleussu (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Thourgood (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kane Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas van den Berg (Dorinthea) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.93
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

David Towsey

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Diran Bajwa (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Paul A Wright (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.72
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Aidan Bates

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Clayton Gowen (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Przemysław Smoleń (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Ben Potter

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Connan (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Carlota Fernández (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Rhinar) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Marko Martic

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Adshead (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jan-Philipp Dreikorn (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Devos (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Kolleck Adrian

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.