Valda Brightaxe at Calling: London 2026

Valda Brightaxe

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Neseyif-Deakin

11th • 11-3-0

79%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.9

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Scupham (Rhinar) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Braben (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: 80:20

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 80:20

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (7.8 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.62
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.18
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.21
R10	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.58
R12	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.23
R13	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Max Karstenberg

35th • 10-4-0

93%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Clark (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Karolis Kriauciunas (Rhinar) - Expected: 80:20

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (8.0 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.58
R12	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.68
R14	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Aleix Córdoba

47th • 9-5-0

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.7

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tess van Dartel (Kayo) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paweł Romanowski (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thorge von Bostel (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Briar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.58
R12	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.30
R13	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R14	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Harle

57th • 9-5-0

79%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Haroldas Stravinskas (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 80:20

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Machi C (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Tadej Krmac (Briar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs George Rodger (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Rhinar) - Expected: 80:20

35:65

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Noè Giussani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.14
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R13	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.30
R14	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Tim Edwards

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lloyd Forsyth (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Turner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Connan (Enigma) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.11
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.25
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Dyson

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hamish Dean (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jakub Bystřický (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Thomas Neseyif-Deakin

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 80:20

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tobias Lee (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sergiu Morar (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Clayton Gowen (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.24
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alan Williams

dropped • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Jorgen Fleussu (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Thourgood (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kane Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas van den Berg (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.08
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

David Towsey

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Diran Bajwa (Briar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Paul A Wright (Enigma) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.60
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Aidan Bates

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Clayton Gowen (Briar) - Expected: 60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Przemysław Smoleń (Briar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Ben Potter

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Connan (Enigma) - Expected: 25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Carlota Fernández (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Rhinar) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Marko Martic

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Adshead (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jan-Philipp Dreikorn (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Devos (Briar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Kolleck Adrian

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.