Aurora at Calling: London 2026

Aurora

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Robert Alessi

69th • 8-6-0

57%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

7.1

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Friday (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Briar) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Kinnett (Dromai) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thorge von Bostel (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Cedric Chartraire (Briar) - Expected: 27:73

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs David Dyson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 27:73

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R12

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55

R14

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (8/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

7.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.35
R11	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Paddy Morgan

dropped • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jack Mountford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 27:73

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs robert john hall (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kieran Waters (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Noah Devos (Briar) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kris Mersol (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Briar) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.26
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

riccardo battaglia

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Frederick Middleton (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Price (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Leonel Torrealba (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Joshua Howard

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Urban (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Camron Lowe (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jamie Alison (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Katy Pickburn

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Miroslav Mojik (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Phil richards (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan McVean (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Camron Lowe (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bill Fox

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Briar) - Expected: 27:73

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Manole (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.