Oldhim at Calling: London 2026

Oldhim

46 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gianluigi Lia

5th • 11-4-0

80%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michiel Flaton (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Naylor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R15 SAGE

Round 15: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (12/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (9.6 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.12
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.31
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.17
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R10	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.23
R12	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.60
R14	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R15	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Faustin Falissard

58th • 9-5-0

79%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Paziewski (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steve Margetson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Karanjeet Singh (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

70:30

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Vasilis Kirlis (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

R13

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

80:20

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs arthur conot (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (8.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R9	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R13	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Vasilis Kirlis

62nd • 9-5-0

57%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

6.7

Surp

5.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Carballido (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs riccardo battaglia (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

15:85

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

70:30

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

57% (8/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	0.63
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R7	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R10	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Win	✗	0.84	1.90
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.23
R13	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R14	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

Julien Desuter

64th • 9-5-0

43%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Wust (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zak Mc Gowan (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

43% (6/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.16
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R9	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.80
R10	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R11	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R12	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R13	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.29
R14	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Michael Jaszczur

dropped • 9-4-0

69%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sönke Heins (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Diran Bajwa (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

0:100

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.12
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.22
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.24
R11	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.26
R12	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.64
R13	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Adrien Druart

dropped • 7-4-0

64%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stuart McKeown (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Florian Anger (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs arthur conot (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Valerie Tompkins (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

0:100

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.72
R6	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.20
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.23
R9	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.25
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Jakob Pogačnik Souvent

dropped • 6-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ricardo Cruz (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Maniscalco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ed Cardall (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.12
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.25
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Lorenzo Tarateta

dropped • 6-2-1

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kolleck Adrian (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Sal (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kacper Fleszar (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Bernhard Hinna (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Draw	✓	0.81	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Jack Bradbury

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Red Itärinne (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kane Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jakub Bystřický (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Matiss Cikota

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.08
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Marko Antonic

dropped • 5-3-1

44%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

6.2

Diff

0:100

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alix Czaplewska (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emel Walsh (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christopher de Bruijn (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hugo Platret (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

0:100

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Albertas pocius (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98, underdog victory

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Draw vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Win	✗	0.98	4.85
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Draw	✓	0.64	-

Axel Gay

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Salina Vaes (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Dylan Thompson

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Artur Hubert (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Oliver O'Connor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Gioele Pedalino (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.51
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.28
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Lewis Miller

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Larkin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kacper Fleszar (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Machi C

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ella Brown (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Kinnett (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ed Cardall (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Rhys Francis

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

95:5

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: 94:6

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Zaffalon (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Buntrock (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs John Hawkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.01
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.67
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.39

Lloyd Forsyth

dropped • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Unwin (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.26

Geoffroy Massard

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sergiu Morar (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Mc Namara (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.23
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.27
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Vulpe Razvan

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Junxian Xie (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Przemysław Smoleń (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.23
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.21
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Bruno Cracco

dropped • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Price (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.19
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-

Sergiu Morar

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

0:100

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Tan-mulligan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lorenz Krassnig (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Daniel Mckinlay

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Brookes (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Igor Koutzevitch

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Fawaz Jaafar (Florian) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christopher de Bruijn (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tiago Victor Goncalves (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alessandro Berganton (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.74
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Mário Abrantes

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Demetrio Bori (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

YeeHo Chow

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Connor McGrath (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mike Williams (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Justin Kruft

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Barefoot (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

0:100

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

0:100

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Julian Flury

dropped • 3-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cian Cambridge (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Tom Hazell (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Draw	✗	0.16	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Andrea Migliavacca

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rowan Webb (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hamish Dean (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Christian Jelle

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Connop (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

0:100

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Gabriel Grosset

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Seb Ball (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

0:100

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Rob Thoen

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ross Chapman (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Feng (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.16
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Samuel Parry

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Mann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Evan McTernan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Corie Mcgowan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Vlad Ciobotea

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Maniscalco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Scupham (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Larkin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Callum Young (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Connor Hetherington (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Wojciech Ruciński

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Natasha Collins (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Przemysław Smoleń (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Arnold (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Matthew Birtwell

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Greenwood (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Cowie (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Juliane Henning (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

0:100

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Win	✗	0.87	0.98
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Austin De Young

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rhyce Clark (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Hadfield (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Brandon Barefoot

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

0:100

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Elliott Chacksfield

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Bayford (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steven Vanbecelaere (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs James Naylor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Kit Valentine

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Isabella Paulke (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.95
R4	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Austin Ryan

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

0:100

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs ISRAEL GONZALEZ (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Finn Macdonald (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Yahir Peñarrubia

dropped • 1-2-1

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Mantas Navickas (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sergio Martínez ibañez (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

0:100

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Neugebauer (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tadhg Conaty (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs René Rost (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Mathis Reteuna

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Victoria Lia (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Tim Sofsky

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Unwin (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Bjarki már Ingólfsson

dropped • 0-3-1

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ISRAEL GONZALEZ (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Lythe ()

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Fawaz Jaafar (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Draw	✗	0.17	-

Ricardo Cruz

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Pogačnik Souvent (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nuno Amaral (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Simon Lüthi (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.