Oldhim at Calling: London 2026

Oldhim

46 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gianluigi Lia

5th • 11-4-0

73%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michiel Flaton (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Naylor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

95:5

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

10:90

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

75:25

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R15 SAGE

Round 15: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

73% (11/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (8.6 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.16
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.41
R8	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.21
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.06
R10	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.29
R12	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R14	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R15	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Faustin Falissard

58th • 9-5-0

79%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Paziewski (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steve Margetson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Karanjeet Singh (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

10:90

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Vasilis Kirlis (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

R13

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs arthur conot (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.09
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.14
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R9	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.40

Vasilis Kirlis

62nd • 9-5-0

50%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

6.6

Surp

6.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Carballido (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs riccardo battaglia (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

5:95

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

5:95

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93, underdog victory

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

95:5

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

10:90

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

45:55

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (7/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Win	✗	0.88	0.66
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R10	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Win	✗	0.93	2.72
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.09
R13	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R14	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Julien Desuter

64th • 9-5-0

71%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stuart Reeve (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Wust (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zak Mc Gowan (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Denis Gergov (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

5:95

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

10:90

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

10:90

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

75:25

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R14 SAGE

Round 14: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.09
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R9	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R11	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R12	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R13	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.37
R14	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Michael Jaszczur

dropped • 9-4-0

77%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

5.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sönke Heins (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Diran Bajwa (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Max Karstenberg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

5:95

R13 SAGE

Round 13: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.53
R7	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.29
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.31
R11	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.34
R12	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.86
R13	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Adrien Druart

dropped • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stuart McKeown (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Florian Anger (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs arthur conot (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Valerie Tompkins (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

5:95

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R8	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.29
R9	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.33
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Jakob Pogačnik Souvent

dropped • 6-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ricardo Cruz (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Maniscalco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ed Cardall (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.60
R8	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.32
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Lorenzo Tarateta

dropped • 6-2-1

89%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kolleck Adrian (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Sal (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kacper Fleszar (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Bernhard Hinna (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.31
R8	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Draw	✓	0.76	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Jack Bradbury

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Red Itärinne (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kane Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jakub Bystřický (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

5:95

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

5:95

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.31
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Matiss Cikota

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.40

Marko Antonic

dropped • 5-3-1

56%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.1

Diff

5:95

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alix Czaplewska (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emel Walsh (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christopher de Bruijn (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hugo Platret (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

5:95

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Albertas pocius (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95, underdog victory

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Draw vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Win	✗	0.95	3.84
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-

Axel Gay

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Salina Vaes (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

95:5

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.08
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.40

Dylan Thompson

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

95:5

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Artur Hubert (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

5:95

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Oliver O'Connor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Gioele Pedalino (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.01
R2	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.48
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.36
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Lewis Miller

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Larkin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kacper Fleszar (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Machi C

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ella Brown (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Kinnett (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ed Cardall (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R7	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Rhys Francis

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Zaffalon (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Buntrock (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rob Catton (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs John Hawkins (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Lloyd Forsyth

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Unwin (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

95:5

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.11

Geoffroy Massard

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sergiu Morar (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Mc Namara (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.30
R7	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Vulpe Razvan

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Junxian Xie (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Przemysław Smoleń (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.30
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.00
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Bruno Cracco

dropped • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Price (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.33
R6	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Win	✗	0.88	2.29
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-

Sergiu Morar

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

5:95

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Tan-mulligan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lorenz Krassnig (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Daniel Mckinlay

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Brookes (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Igor Koutzevitch

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Fawaz Jaafar (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christopher de Bruijn (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tiago Victor Goncalves (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alessandro Berganton (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Mário Abrantes

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Demetrio Bori (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

YeeHo Chow

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Connor McGrath (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

95:5

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mike Williams (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.05
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Justin Kruft

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Barefoot (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

5:95

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

5:95

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Julian Flury

dropped • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cian Cambridge (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Tom Hazell (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Draw	✗	0.07	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Andrea Migliavacca

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rowan Webb (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

95:5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hamish Dean (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.09
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christian Jelle

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Connop (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

5:95

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

5:95

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Gabriel Grosset

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Seb Ball (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

5:95

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Rob Thoen

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ross Chapman (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Feng (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.95
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Samuel Parry

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Mann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Evan McTernan (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Giacomo Mosca (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Corie Mcgowan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R4	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Vlad Ciobotea

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Maniscalco (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Scupham (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Larkin (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Callum Young (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Connor Hetherington (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Wojciech Ruciński

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Natasha Collins (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Przemysław Smoleń (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Arnold (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matthew Birtwell

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Greenwood (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Cowie (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Juliane Henning (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

5:95

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Win	✗	0.89	1.06
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Austin De Young

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rhyce Clark (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Hadfield (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Brandon Barefoot

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

5:95

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.91
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Elliott Chacksfield

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Bayford (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

95:5

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steven Vanbecelaere (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs James Naylor (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Kit Valentine

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Isabella Paulke (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Austin Ryan

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

5:95

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs ISRAEL GONZALEZ (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Finn Macdonald (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Yahir Peñarrubia

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Mantas Navickas (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sergio Martínez ibañez (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Neugebauer (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tadhg Conaty (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs René Rost (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Mathis Reteuna

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Victoria Lia (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Tim Sofsky

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Unwin (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Bjarki már Ingólfsson

dropped • 0-3-1

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ISRAEL GONZALEZ (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Lythe ()

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Fawaz Jaafar (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Ricardo Cruz

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Pogačnik Souvent (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nuno Amaral (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Simon Lüthi (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.