Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Calling: Copenhagen 2025

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

66 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bartosz Ziemba

3rd • 11-3-0

71%

Meta

+4.2

Perf

6.7

Surp

5.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mario Donoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bart Horré (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fredrik Fagerberg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Juan Chacon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tilemachos Tsontakis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Juan Chacon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

71% (10/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.07
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.20
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.52
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.21
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.96
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Juan Chacon

5th • 10-3-0

62%

Meta

+3.9

Perf

6.6

Surp

4.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Bradbury (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kai Martin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikkel Hasselbalch Kristensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (8/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.35
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.29
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.53
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.43
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.41
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.90
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.94
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.80
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jean Luka Zorko

45th • 8-3-1

58%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Emilis Dirmeikis (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Zussev (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kamil Grodecki (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wessel Groot (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs George Jones (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Richard Carr (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Simone Rainaldi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Draw	✓	0.74	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

Evan Tanguy

24th • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Carr (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Botond Szujó (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bino Nolting (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.57
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.33
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Jonas Benzarti

29th • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs damien herlin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Chirulescu (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Fabian Groß (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lewis Day (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bart Horré (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.24
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.21
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.87
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.36
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Brodie Spurlock

32nd • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

6.6

Surp

4.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dario Vegh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Brøcker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ugnius Švedas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lari Lampainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Botond Szujó (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tobias Pechnig (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.33
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.02
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Natan Tomeo

37th • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fábián Demeter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Canning (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Fredrik Fagerberg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.05
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Arthur Trehet

60th • 7-4-1

83%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Klas Bergholtz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fredrik Fagerberg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Draw vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dziugas Skrupskelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.05
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.32
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Brown

52nd • 7-5-0

50%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florian Vanclaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Axel Gay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tilemachos Tsontakis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Emil Spangenberg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.24
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.46
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.55
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.58
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Jorgen Fleussu

54th • 7-5-0

42%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lewis Day (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arthur Hokkanen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Max Löhe (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Panayot Andreev (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Francesco Motta (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Ward (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kenni Pedersen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.37
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.84
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.02
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Felix Krisch

66th • 6-5-1

58%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jon Holm Thomsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Mayr (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Martin Kristoffersson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Reyes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andreas Ventzel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Fabian Groß (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Draw vs Kenni Pedersen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.60
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Anthony Vero Cerenzio

67th • 6-5-1

42%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mads Rosenkrands Kaasing (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Fredrik Fagerberg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Arthur Nijssen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Draw vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Johannes Warming (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.62
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Kenni Pedersen

69th • 6-5-1

58%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mikkel Hasselbalch Kristensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nikita Laasmaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kit Valentine (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tobias Pechnig (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Draw vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.52
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.37
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.65
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Lari Lampainen

65th • 6-6-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tobias Neller (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emil Spangenberg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Simone Rainaldi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.39
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.00
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Dziugas Skrupskelis

70th • 6-6-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrius Pečiulis (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Urban (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Plamen Kutinchev (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Reichhart (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.04
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.37
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.45
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexander Reichhart

71st • 6-6-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

5.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pol Pérez (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Olli Saarinen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Giannis Koumidis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Emil Spangenberg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dziugas Skrupskelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.45
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jacob Clements

dropped • 6-4-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Parry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Jud (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anders Andersen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.13
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.45
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Tobias Pechnig

dropped • 5-5-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marc Lanigra (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Brockhage (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jaran Ødegaard Sørensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Johannes Warming (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.28
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.05
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Franciszek Sapikowski

dropped • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Brockhage (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Hicks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Ruben Van Dessel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kamil Grodecki (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Max Schmidt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.40
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

Aaron Boyhan

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Linus Lindroth (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Eliassen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mario Donoso

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mantas Banevicius (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gints Dreimanis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Kuric (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Johannes Warming (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.29
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Michael Hamilton

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gust Boelaert (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Heiden (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Italo Molina (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.31
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Paul van Gijssel

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Brown (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Konrad Niva (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.86
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Richard Carr

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sami Belkhorfi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Peter Bråss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.64
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sam Cornelis

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joel Rencen (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Martin Bergström (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gints Dreimanis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Samuel Parry

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sven Pavlek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Conor Rourke (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wessel Groot (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Victor Brøcker

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steve Andrew (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Viet Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thilo Focke (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Viet Pham

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jan Eid (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Karl Vilhem Pulk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Beese (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.43
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Alberto Di Blasi

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Müller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Vaz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thilo Focke (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.64
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.90
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Christian Sørup Jensen

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Igor Đekić (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ha-Lim Chang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Florian Vanclaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Max Löhe (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs enzo costa (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Chirulescu (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.86
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.43

Italo Molina

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tommaso Ariatti (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wessel Groot (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Juho Hälli (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thilo Focke (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.31
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.08
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Martin Kristoffersson

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rene Gropp (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.43
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Michael Feng

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vilma Varismaa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Heiden (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Bonde (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andreas Stjernfelt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Steffen Bauer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Paul Beese

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Vong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emil Spangenberg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marc Nielsen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Viet Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniele Coppola (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jordy Pereira (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Valentin Soloviev

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sven Pavlek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Max Harudd Segerstein (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Simone Rainaldi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.36
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Axel Gay

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phil Mead (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gust Boelaert (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Henrik Kaldahl (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mads Rosenkrands Kaasing (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Mads Kjølby Larsen

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nikita Laasmaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andreas Kaiser (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrius Pečiulis (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thilo Focke (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.44
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Matthew Green

dropped • 1-6-0

57%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Coppola (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kristaps Dubults (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesper Lindström (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Martin Andreasson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Adrián Marín

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Arnaud Thenevin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Bartosz Dominiak

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lasse Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs René Schep (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Johannes Warming (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Gints Dreimanis

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Groß (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bo Skarvil (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Joergensen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bartłomiej Michalak (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.14
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.93
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Goode-Hamy

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florian Höflmair (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vladimir Del Valle (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.17
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

George Rodger

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Connor McGrath (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Javier Querol (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jakub Bystřický (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dziugas Skrupskelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.35
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jack Bradbury

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jon Holm Thomsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Johannes Warming (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.17
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Linus Lindroth

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Olli Saarinen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Liam Canning (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Marc Lanigra

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tobias Pechnig (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Marcel Andrzejczak

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrius Pečiulis (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dario Vegh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.17
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Noah Hicks

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Axel Gay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Franciszek Sapikowski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Izac Gale (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chang Li (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.75
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Shahin Ghorbani azad

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Motta (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Frédéric Marigo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tobias Neller (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.60
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Emlyn Ingram

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tudor Diaconescu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Alexander Mayr

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Benjamin Westmore

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Antti Tikkakoski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ian Zhang

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mads Pedersen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonas Stoberock

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tilemachos Tsontakis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Carr (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Liam Canning

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Malyk Höfle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Max Schmidt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Linus Lindroth (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicolas Ziegler

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Karl Vilhem Pulk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Theodosis Pafitis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Tigran Grigorian

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andreas Kaiser (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mads Rosenkrands Kaasing (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.75
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Georgi Lazarov

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Migliavacca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Magnusson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Oosterveen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Florian Vanclaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Mads Pedersen

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Eliassen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Taimo Paavola

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Bonde (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Enki Dupaquier

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Linus Lindroth (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frederik Damholt Hansen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Erik Gjone

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Panayot Andreev (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joost Verburg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Hasan Abdali

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Nijssen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Jack Fanning

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Liam Holden

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antti Tikkakoski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mantas Banevicius (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Sebastian Sommer

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcel Rosenfeld (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Mayr (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.