Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Copenhagen 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Juho Hälli

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tobias Neller (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pol Pérez (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Italo Molina (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Andersson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.38
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.47
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.42

Finlay Freir

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sven Pavlek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Magnusson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.43
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Arthur Hokkanen

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jan Schweder (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Thomas G Jud

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marius Beuth (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.