Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mike Cortes

29th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Will Rea (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Morris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.09
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.18
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.35
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.76
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Carter Barton

30th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Alfaro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.17
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.65
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.70
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Wesley Chandler

47th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Melora Cayce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Devin Sather (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.53
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.42
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.06
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

MOISES LOPEZ

49th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs jeremiah pizano (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Oshiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gavin Ceballos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.34
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.61
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Cooper Templeton

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cullen Roth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gavin Ceballos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Little (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Dylan Williamson

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Wilhite (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gavin Ceballos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Erick Avila (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Kim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brenden Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.89
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Dan Groseclose

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dien Tran (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Myles Schortgen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bennett Robinson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.97
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.57
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Daniel Cole

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Norton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nomi Lynn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Fryar (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Morris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Joshua Phillips

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Orlando Valdes Santos (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Sayer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Thunderhill (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

John Paul Kilcrease

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nicklas starland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Robles (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.77
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Roberto Busnelli

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jared Tout (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nomi Lynn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Kris Ilich

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Craig Ketchum (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Hayslip (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.27
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Austin Henry

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Cutler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Jeffs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.96
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Joe Santianna

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Jones (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Geoff Walter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Andrew Watkins

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 80:20

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.11
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Garrett Shustarich

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Addison Hudson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.99
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Sadat Minick

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Garcia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Siegrist (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.97
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Caleb Witta

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Caio Felipe Antonangelo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Ronit Patel

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Kuhn (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Justin Fernandes

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Robert Marsack

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Raymond Ciannello (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Wyatt Goehring

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.