Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
23rd • 7-2-0
89%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38
Round 2: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Garrett Shustarich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joshua Rath (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Carter Barton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
38th • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Doug Frauman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joe Santianna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
Round 7: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
73rd • 3-6-0
56%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
4.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Round 3: Loss vs James Weeton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ted Chang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Craig Ketchum (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Gripkey (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Austin Henry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Jason Irons (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Will Rea (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Phillips (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Parker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Leany (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Robert Cutler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bennett Robinson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Tucker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
0%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs James Koehler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
0.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jose Santos martinez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.