Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.6
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 18:82
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Edwards (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Carter Wenz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.