Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025
Prism, Awakener of Sol
21 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 7-2-0
67%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Phillip Starnes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marcus Queen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jose Garcia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
85:15
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
22nd • 7-2-0
78%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Erick Avila (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Valerio Guercio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Round 7: Win vs Jose Santos martinez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Will Rea (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Win |
35th • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Mark Wright (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs nicklas starland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
85:15
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
41st • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeff Porter (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80
Round 7: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54
Round 9: Win vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
50th • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luis Cisneros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shawn Adams (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jose Santos martinez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
85:15
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Gavin Ceballos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80
Round 9: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R9 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
60th • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
4.2
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Loss vs Will Rea (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Nathan Burns (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Pitcher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michael Parker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
Round 7: Loss vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Burnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
85:15
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
Round 2: Win vs Alexandar Shi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joseph McKinley (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Melora Cayce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dien Tran (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Pitcher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs andrew weas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Cole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jaylon Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Round 5: Loss vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
0%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69
Round 4: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Round 3: Win vs Blake Freeman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Wilhite (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Blankenship (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76
Round 5: Win vs John Tucker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs andrew weas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 4: Loss vs Brian Kaliszak (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jake Landaiche (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs John Tucker (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Trace Winborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs sean Burke (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Lawton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nomi Lynn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Alexander Jeffs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Fullingim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jose Santos martinez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roberto Busnelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Lawton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Kim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Cole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Roberto Busnelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
0.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Valerio Guercio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.