Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
11th • 7-2-0
11%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
5.5
Surp
6.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Round 2: Win vs Jaylon Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Douglas Jones (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Carlos Alfaro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
Round 8: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
6.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shamil Makhachev (Unknown)
Round 2: Win vs Elias Brooks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Raymond Griffin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Melora Cayce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Round 2: Win vs James Koehler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dylan Harter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chester Stallings (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs George Ferris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Carter Wenz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zeni Ragsdale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jean Negron (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
0.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.