Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
21 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
25th • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
4.7
Surp
3.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Round 7: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Melora Cayce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Evan Ford (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
34th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs george flete (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Robert Cutler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Jose Garcia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
59th • 5-4-0
78%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eric Towne (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Ford (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Parker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joe Santianna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jose Garcia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 8: Loss vs Gavin Ceballos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Phillip Starnes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Logan King (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66
Round 4: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs nicklas starland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Zachary Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leo Loera (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marcus Queen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alexander Burnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
Round 6: Win vs nicklas starland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zach Johnson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Noah Geiger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Geoff Walter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Valerio Guercio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Geoff Walter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Win vs Carter Wenz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Douglas Jones (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zachary Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Chapman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zachary Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jake Torres (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hasan Abdali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Round 2: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
Round 4: Loss vs Gavin Ceballos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Phillips (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66
Round 3: Win vs Danielle Williams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jake Bowar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jose Santos martinez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luis Rivera (Unknown)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Cole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tessa Miller (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Winry Owen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Marit Franks (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.