Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025 - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Metallo

10th • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.41
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.47
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.80
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.97
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.08
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aurora Kynkor

dropped • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Little (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Michael Lawton

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jared Tout (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.93
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Peter Goomroyan

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Devin Sather (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.