Kano, Dracai of Aether at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025
Kano, Dracai of Aether
16 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 9-2-0
82%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
4.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Austin Barta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Win vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jose Garcia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 75:25
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
85:15
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Christopher Little (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 84:16
85:15
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Christopher Little (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 84:16
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
82% (9/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R11 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
21st • 7-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marit Franks (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Max McLean (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Zach Johnson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Caleb Brower (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
85:15
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
Meta Fit
100% (9/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
40th • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.5
Surp
3.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Seren Roberson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stephen Leany (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jake Torres (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Gavin Ceballos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
52nd • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
4.4
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Harter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Crowley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
85:15
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 84:16
Round 7: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85
15:85
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
62nd • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.7
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Salvador Morales (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 84:16
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tom Morris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Caio Felipe Antonangelo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Douglas Jones (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34
85:15
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Steve Halloran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
85:15
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Raymond Ciannello (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
68th • 4-5-0
78%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ronit Patel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Douglas Jones (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
15:85
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Luis Robles (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gavin Ceballos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jake Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dien Tran (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brandon Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Phillip Spader (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Addison Hudson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 84:16
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jake Torres (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kris Ilich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Trace Winborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Chandler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Melora Cayce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ted Chang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brady Hayes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 75:25
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
0.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Gripkey (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.