Katsu, the Wanderer at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025
Katsu, the Wanderer
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
61st • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kris Ilich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 13:87
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Mark Wright (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80
75:25
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
77th • 3-6-0
44%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Barrios (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jake Torres (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
Round 5: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs Jake Landaiche (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R9 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Burnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Edwards (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jedi Abaja (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Stephen Leany (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Carter Barton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.