Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025

Dash I/O

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Burnett

46th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Crowley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Trace Winborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Raymond Ciannello (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.23
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.74
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.63
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Mint Carroll

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Hayslip (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Craig Ketchum (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.14
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Pacheco

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Geoff Walter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.41
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Luis Robles

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raymond Ciannello (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.94
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Alexander Jeffs

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Kim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Henry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.