Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025 - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Burnett

46th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Crowley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Trace Winborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Raymond Ciannello (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.32
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.25
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.00
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.93
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.62
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Mint Carroll

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Hayslip (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Craig Ketchum (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Jacob Pacheco

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Geoff Walter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.41
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Luis Robles

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raymond Ciannello (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.94
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Alexander Jeffs

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Kim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Henry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.