Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
12th • 7-2-0
44%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Brower (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Fryar (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 61:39
Round 3: Win vs Raymond Ciannello (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Valerio Guercio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marit Franks (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
Round 6: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
32nd • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Caio Felipe Antonangelo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sadat Minick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
71st • 4-5-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Blake Freeman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 61:39
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Burnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
Round 9: Win vs Steve Halloran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Stuhr (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
0.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.