Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025 - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luke Magnuson

9th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Metallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Kuhn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stephen Leany (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.11
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.46
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.39
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.32
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ethan Davison

51st • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Hickman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Spader (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Craig Ketchum (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.26
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.55
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.19
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.97
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Rhea Adams

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Winry Owen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cullen Roth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.21
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Cavin Saravanan

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Arocha-Coard (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Carter Barton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.58
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.62
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Zeni Ragsdale

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Dumansky (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Crowley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Blankenship (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Bennett Robinson

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Edwards (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 90:10

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.11
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Caio Felipe Antonangelo

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Caleb Witta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Pitcher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.72
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Winry Owen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aidan Berkel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Gavin Siegrist

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Kuhn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Jack Sayer

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Phillips (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

James Koehler

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Austin Barta

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.