Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Crowley

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Burnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zeni Ragsdale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 11:89

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.30
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Dennis Kuhn

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ronit Patel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kenneth Thomas (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Evan Bridges

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Jeffs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.