Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Crowley

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Burnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zeni Ragsdale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Dennis Kuhn

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ronit Patel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kenneth Thomas (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Evan Bridges

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Jeffs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.