Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025
Arakni, Marionette
17 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 7-2-0
44%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
5.0
Surp
4.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Carter Barton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
Round 8: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
17th • 7-2-0
44%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ted Chang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Joshua Rath (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
20th • 7-2-0
56%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sadat Minick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Charlie Herren (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
75th • 3-6-0
44%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
4.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Danielle Williams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Raymond Ciannello (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Round 3: Win vs Matthew W (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tom Morris (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Will Rea (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-5-0
38%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua White (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jean Negron (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jake Landaiche (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Carter Barton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Trace Winborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luke Harris (Unknown)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Thunderhill (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Addison Hudson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Max McLean (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Phillips (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Wesley Cole (Unknown)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Alfaro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Brower (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Underwood (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Melora Cayce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Ford (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.