Battle Hardened: Las Vegas 2025 - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ted Chang

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Towne (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caden Stabler (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Weeton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Wright (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.95
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Dylan Harter

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emilio Lopez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Enos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Alexandar Shi

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Badillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Kuhn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Addison Barrett

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jaylon Jones (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Andrew Wilborn

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

jeremiah pizano

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.