Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Calling: Kansas City 2026
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
18 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 11-3-0
71%
Meta
+3.6
Perf
6.1
Surp
5.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Beckett (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 43:57
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Austin Redington (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Damien Riggins (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 52:48
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Matt Muus (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Lauren Stobbe (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Young (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
71% (10/14 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 11 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Zyggy Starlight | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
51st • 8-4-0
50%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Lily Reynoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Shimon Dasgupta (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nate Kimbrel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tony Stobbe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45
Round 7: Win vs Emery Powell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Ryan Rich (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Aidan Ayers (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Caleb Wangler (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-2-1
86%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Robinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andy Tran (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Talon Bradshaw (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Luke Manship (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs William Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrew Maggert (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Sanders (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 71:29
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Amber Pennington (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lauren Stobbe (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matt Muus (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-2
71%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Dan Mui (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs James Wray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cody Reed (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Zachary Henneous (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Emmy Chenard (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Duncan Sinclair (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 75% | Draw |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Trevor Gullach (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs JACOB BOWEN (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jameon Delp (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Allen Towery (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kirby Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Gohl (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs BRAD ALLRED (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gary Bull (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stephanie Hine (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ty Hicks (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
Round 5: Win vs Larry Durham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Josh Bibb (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-1
43%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Geldrich (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Eric Brandon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Bulgherini (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charles Poe (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ian Carrico (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nathaniel Brower (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-1
67%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emmy Chenard (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Derrick Schwarz (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Victor Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Shawn Adams (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Draw |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ray Shell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Dahm (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Emmy Chenard (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Bulgherini (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dylan Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Gohl (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ashton Dorsey (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Caden Day (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Raea Mitchell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
Round 6: Loss vs Kyle Carrington (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Devine (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs April May (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jesse Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Loss vs Matt Yee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alex Pagnani (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rex Carroll (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Beckett (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Thompson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Maggert (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-1
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Brower (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kyle Carrington (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs William Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Day (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-1
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Syndi Beloate (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Trip Hargrove (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Fogle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Steven O'Reilly (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 65% | Draw |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charles Poe (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Perekhov-Lef (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Schumacher (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.