Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at Calling: Kansas City 2026

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 5-9-0

64%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

5.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

Katsu, the Wanderer

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colton Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Serrage (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Hansen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gil Beloate (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 35:65

Zyggy Starlight

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Dash I/O

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 21:79

Fai, Rising Rebellion

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Caden Day (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

Dash I/O

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zack Martin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 21:79

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jeremy Constance (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (6.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.05
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R7	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

dropped • 5-5-0

70%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Fritz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Arakni, Marionette

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Grant Rockefeller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Betsy, Skin in the Game

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Dandikar (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 61:39

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Katsu, the Wanderer

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Wolverton (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 35:65

Katsu, the Wanderer

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Amber Pennington (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Fai, Rising Rebellion

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Caleb Wangler (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.25
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.53
R8	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Fai, Rising Rebellion

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Syndi Beloate (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gregory Smith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dorinthea Ironsong

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Jarl Vetreiði

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58

Jarl Vetreiði

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Young (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Barrett Goss (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

Fai, Rising Rebellion

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dakota Jones (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Jarl Vetreiði

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Edwards (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Camden Keener (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lily Reynoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Marshall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Arakni, Marionette

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Fangshuo Cao (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.08
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R7	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs chris smith (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Chall (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Katsu, the Wanderer

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Colton Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matt Muus (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Keenan Humphrey (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R6	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Katherine Merwin

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Arakni, Huntsman

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 62:38

Dorinthea Ironsong

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rex Carroll (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 35:65

Arakni, Marionette

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tony Mathews (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Valda, Seismic Impact

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.19
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.80
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Kathryn Aulabaugh

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Volden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

Zyggy Starlight

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Bruner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Gill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Zyggy Starlight

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daylon Mack (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 75:25

Betsy, Skin in the Game

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Caleb Hall (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Dastas (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.09
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.24
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.62
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

Olympia, Prized Fighter

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Dahm (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Dash I/O

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 21:79

Dash I/O

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Leonard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

Katsu, the Wanderer

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Amber Pennington (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 74:26

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marc Hansen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.28
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.37
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max McLean (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Dorinthea Ironsong

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs DANIEL WILLIAMS (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Keeton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58

Dash I/O

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Bibb (Dash I/O) - Expected: 21:79

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Camden Keener (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Keenan Humphrey (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.54
R4	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Thompson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robbie McReynolds (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt Reed (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18

Arakni, Marionette

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Gardner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Betsy, Skin in the Game

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Witt Lucas (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.17
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Landon Lord (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Fogle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Valda, Seismic Impact

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sheena Crawford (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

Betsy, Skin in the Game

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs BRAD ALLRED (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Arakni, Marionette

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.24
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Micheal Thompson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Fai, Rising Rebellion

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Maggert (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

Valda, Seismic Impact

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Reed (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 22:78

Pleiades, Superstar

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Edwin Ahn (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 35:65

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Shehan (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.28
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.