Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Kansas City 2026

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jack Sweeney

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cody Gibson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Blankenship (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Logan Reinert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gil Beloate (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.46
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alan Chavarin

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nolan Pitts (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Houder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colton Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maddux Warren (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Doug Rothhaar (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Raea Mitchell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

John Bracken

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Bulgherini (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kirby Hill (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dane Dickson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Cody Reed (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Billal Mahmoud (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cole Matney

dropped • 1-6-0

86%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Gieder (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Keenan Humphrey (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Beam (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tho Bui (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Allen Towery (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aidan Volden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Wolfe (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.97
R5	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Coleman Beam

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edwin Ahn (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Syndi Beloate (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.