Aurora, Legacy of Tempest at Calling: Kansas City 2026

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

23 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Randall Robinson

52nd • 7-5-0

75%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Duncan Sinclair (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Randy Davis (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 38:62

Betsy, Skin in the Game

10:90

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 10:90

Arakni, Huntsman

0:100

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Sanders (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.31
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.57
R8	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

54th • 7-5-0

83%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

5.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colin Shoberg (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven O'Reilly (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Van Winkle (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Austin Ford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lauren Stobbe (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 38:62

Katsu, the Wanderer

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Amber Pennington (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

10:90

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.57
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R10	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

57th • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

Dash I/O

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emmy Chenard (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nate Kimbrel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lee Kimball (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Dash I/O

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tim Hickman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R8	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.10
R9	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

59th • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Schumacher (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Micaiah Wooten (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Joshua Kehe (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Robert Cutler (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Austin Ford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.45
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.34
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

61st • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs brady cuplin (Unknown)

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs April May (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christiano Cavallo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Matt Muus (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 38:62

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Austin Ford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Dash I/O

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Dash I/O

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Feng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R7	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.51
R12	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Nicholas Wolverton

62nd • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Milner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Fritz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Katsu, the Wanderer

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Griffin Murray (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aidan Ayers (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Trent Williams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jose Badillo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dylan Deitz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.42
R9	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.68
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

75th • 6-6-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daylon Mack (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dundas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Robinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dash I/O

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Johnson (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs April May (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zachary Lyons (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Katsu, the Wanderer

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Amber Pennington (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Dash I/O

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R9	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

Oscilio, Forked Continuum

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Hoang (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Dastas (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Bader (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Duncan Sinclair (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Forked Continuum	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.52
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.29
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Beam (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Valda, Seismic Impact

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Buster Sexton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aidan Davis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elijah Marshall (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.14
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chuck Ford (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Dash I/O

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Martin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Dash I/O

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jarron Idleman (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Perrin Franklin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.94
R5	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Nathan Crawford

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.7

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grant Emery (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Forked Continuum

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Otte (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Betsy, Skin in the Game

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 10:90

Jarl Vetreiði

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Fernandez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89, underdog victory

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robbie McReynolds (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Forked Continuum	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Win	✗	0.89	2.32
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jon Gibson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Valda, Seismic Impact

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mike Headley (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Trace Winborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Arakni, Huntsman

0:100

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 0:100

Dash I/O

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jamie Seaborn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.26
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.42
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shawn Travelstead

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

Valda, Seismic Impact

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maddux Warren (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emery Powell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chuck Ford (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Dash I/O

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Caleb Engen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Betsy, Skin in the Game

10:90

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Caleb Hall (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.42
R7	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Jeremy Constance

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robbie McReynolds (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andy Tran (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mike Murray (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 38:62

Jarl Vetreiði

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Larry Durham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Wolfe (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dantes Ha (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Katherine Merwin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Suh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Redington (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.42
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

Valda, Seismic Impact

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cody Reed (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gregory Smith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 50:50

Puffin, Hightail

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Stew Fraser (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marc Hansen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.05
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Matthew Helphenstine

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Dash I/O

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edwin Ordonez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Jarl Vetreiði

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Zyggy Starlight

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Cutler (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Isaac Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.28
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Chandler Bushnell

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Durwood Moore (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ender Hansen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 57:43

Betsy, Skin in the Game

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kenneth Lyle (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Miles (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Adams (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Arakni, Huntsman

0:100

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Sanders (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 0:100

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Blackmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marvin Swords (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Valda, Seismic Impact

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Travelstead (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.24
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Yee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Bracken (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Betsy, Skin in the Game

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Dandikar (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 10:90

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Wolfe (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Phillip Kendall

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Perekhov-Lef (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dash I/O

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Gieder (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nate Kimbrel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Katsu, the Wanderer

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Griffin Murray (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.