Briar at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Briar

39 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chandler Bushnell

5th • 7-2-0

22%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.1

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ender Hansen (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Buster Sexton (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Steven Cawyer (Azalea) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Senokossoff (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mike Murray (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.60
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.93
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.03
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Sebastiano Cavallo

22nd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Prusinski (Unknown)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Casey Picarelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Buster Sexton (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kyle Carrington (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Steven Cawyer (Azalea) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.47
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Trey Herring

23rd • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Carrington (Fai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shimon Dasgupta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs AUSTIN BAYNES (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs William Garrison (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs jacob jacob (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Adam Hine (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.68
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.02
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christopher Iaali

25th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Craig Krempels (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Senokossoff (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Seon Tompkins (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jason Brannick (Dash) - Expected: 80:20

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kyle Carrington (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Dash	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Raine Karan

26th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Siegfried (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Richard Moore (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Landon De Loach (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tho Bui (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Adam Hine

30th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Logan Petersen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Hollermann (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Blake Freeman (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Muhidin Grosonja (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jamie Seaborn (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Trey Herring (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.31
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Indie Hansen

33rd • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Shimon Dasgupta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Marc Hansen (Dorinthea) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Shehan (Azalea) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.94
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Gil Beloate

38th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nate Kimbrel (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Warner (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nick Webb (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Raine Karan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Dandikar (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.75
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Cawvey

39th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Brown (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Dunkirk (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dakota Meier (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs JACOB BOWEN (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Gohl (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Henneous (Dorinthea) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Zackary Young (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.45
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R8	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Tho Bui

45th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Peter Hong (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Buster Sexton (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Gill (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raine Karan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Shen (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Buster Sexton

46th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tho Bui (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kaileb Shipman (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.34
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.36

Jacob Gladman

50th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Perekhov-Lef (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matt Campbell (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Devine (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Isaac Hollermann (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tho Bui (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Phillip Spader

52nd • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jason Dutch (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Lyons (Lexi) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ender Hansen (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R5	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anthony Camacho

55th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Emery Powell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Carter Sissell (Fai) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi) - Expected: 37:63

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Isaac Chall (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Richard Moore (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Schumacher (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Shehan (Azalea) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Tyler Sorensen

63rd • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Shen (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Bray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Dong (Dash) - Expected: 80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs JACOB BOWEN (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jaryd Beebe (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Schumacher (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Dash	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christiano Cavallo

69th • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Maggert (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Elijah Marshall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dakota Meier (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Landon De Loach (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Ray (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Alexander Schumacher

70th • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Gieder (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emilio Alvarez Harris (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Larry Durham (Florian) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Dong (Dash) - Expected: 80:20

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Casey Picarelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tyler Sorensen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Martinez

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Syndi Beloate (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Webb (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chad Heuschober (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Billal Mahmoud (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Ray (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Christopher Dietz

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Wenger (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Craig Krempels (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Trey Herring (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chuck Ford

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs William Marshall (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marc Hansen (Dorinthea) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs JACOB BOWEN (Chane) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Martinez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Landon De Loach

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emilio Alvarez Harris (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Raine Karan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jaryd Beebe (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Craig Krempels

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Brown (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Dandikar (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gregory Smith

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Fai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Josh Leier (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Ray (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Clayton Dell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.65
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.77
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tony Stobbe

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dane Dickson (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chad Heuschober (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Garrison (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Seon Tompkins (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

William Garrison

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ray Kruse (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tony Stobbe (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Trey Herring (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Wenger (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Geoffrey Hunt

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adler Hansen (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mike Murray (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stephanie Hine (Dash) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.58
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Logan Petersen

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Hine (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Charles Poe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Chall (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jamie Seaborn (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.87
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Shawn Walker

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Dunkirk (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Darin Key (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Larry Durham (Florian) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mike Murray (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Tyler Battles

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacen Whitlock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Minh Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Webb (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nathan Crawford

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Johnson (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Henneous (Dorinthea) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Brian Kenyon

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stephanie Hine (Dash) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs jacob jacob (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Trip Hargrove (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dylan Arnold

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Seon Tompkins (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Josh Leier (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Fai) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R3	Silver Age	Fai	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Isaac Brown

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Cawvey (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Gohl (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Todd France

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Syndi Beloate (Dromai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bailey Kehret (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kenneth Lyle

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Beam (Enigma) - Expected: 47:53

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Millwee (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Darren Rennie

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Warner (Oscilio) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Gill (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Daniel White

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kirby Hill (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Noah Fogle

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sheena Crawford

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Henneous (Dorinthea) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.