Blaze, Firemind at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Blaze, Firemind

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Devine

14th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Bray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Iyslander) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Senokossoff (Oscilio) - Expected: 17:83

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Neal B (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jamie Seaborn (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Shimon Dasgupta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.22
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Billal Mahmoud

68th • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Buster Sexton (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs PJ Kelley (Lexi) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dane Dickson (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Shehan (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Martinez (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.48
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Emilio Alvarez Harris

72nd • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chad Heuschober (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Landon De Loach (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Schumacher (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Moore (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Zackary Young (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs jacob jacob (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.80
R8	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dustin De Loach

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Bibb (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dong (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Iyslander) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adler Hansen (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Charles Poe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.09
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Kirby Hill

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel White (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio) - Expected: 17:83

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs JACOB BOWEN (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Iyslander) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Ethan Gill

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs jacob jacob (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Darren Rennie (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tho Bui (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.51
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Anthony Hook

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Dastas (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Bibb (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Martin Cox

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Oscilio) - Expected: 17:83

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Hickman III (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jamie Seaborn (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs jacob jacob (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.65
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Alex Gieder

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Teddy Olson (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Schumacher (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs jacob jacob (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Poe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Gibson

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Larry Durham (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Teddy Olson (Enigma) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Thomas Bray

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Devine (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Warner (Oscilio) - Expected: 17:83

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Sorensen (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Alexander Perekhov-Lef

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Austin "Ozz" Barta

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.