Lexi at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Lexi

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Riddell

5th • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.7

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andy Tran (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Shehan (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jamie Seaborn (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.10
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.28
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.23
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

PJ Kelley

76th • 1-7-0

75%

Meta

-2.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Billal Mahmoud (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs AUSTIN BAYNES (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Ray (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Dong (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs DANIEL WILLIAMS (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Zachary Lyons

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Ford (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Luke Leonard

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Stange (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 32:68

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Hickman III (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher McQuary

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.