Dromai at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Dromai

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Tyler

3rd • 9-1-0

70%

Meta

+3.9

Perf

4.9

Surp

5.6

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Josh Leier (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Bader (Chane) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dagan White (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Senokossoff (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raine Karan (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

R10

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.60
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.01
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Win	✗	0.79	2.05
R10	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mara Faris

13th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Bruner (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Landon De Loach (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Raine Karan (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.79
R7	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Luke Shinn

15th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nick Webb (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stephanie Hine (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Lee Kimball

17th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Gardner (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jamie Seaborn (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Indie Hansen (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Teddy Olson (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

David Dandikar

20th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Micky Jacks (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jaryd Beebe (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Craig Krempels (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle Carrington (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Isaac Hollermann (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Zachary Henneous (Dorinthea) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.35

Mike Murray

29th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jon Gibson (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Hollermann (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Shawn Walker (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Shen (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Gohl (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Luke Manship

31st • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar) - Expected: 19:81

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luke Leonard (Lexi) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emery Powell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Seon Tompkins (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jeremy Stockfleth

40th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Dong (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Richard Moore (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luke Stange (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Clayton Dell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Trey Herring (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jaryd Beebe (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

Richard Moore

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Travis Yeo (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raine Karan (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emilio Alvarez Harris (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Zackary Young (Chane) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.77
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Chall

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adler Hansen (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Bader (Chane) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Minh Tran

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Charles Poe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Battles (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matt Campbell (Fai) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dagan White (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

AUSTIN BAYNES

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Wray (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs JACOB BOWEN (Chane) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Trey Herring (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs PJ Kelley (Lexi) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.55

David Nguyen

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Trip Hargrove (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs DANIEL WILLIAMS (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marc Hansen (Dorinthea) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Syndi Beloate

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Todd France (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Martinez (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Wenger (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Alex Ford

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Lyons (Lexi) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Senokossoff (Oscilio) - Expected: 42:58

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dane Dickson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tony Stobbe (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Clayton Dell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Billal Mahmoud (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-

Jason Dutch

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Clayton Dell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

David Massey

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dakota Meier (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.