Rhinar at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Rhinar

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Witt Lucas

49th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 81:19

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Maggert (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Hong (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Connor Babcock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Senokossoff (Oscilio) - Expected: 27:73

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Buster Sexton (Briar) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Liam Donnelly

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs PJ Kelley (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sean Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Oscilio) - Expected: 27:73

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adam Hine (Briar) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.94
R4	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.25
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Steve Halloran

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bailey Kehret (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Trip Hargrove (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jaryd Beebe (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Shimon Dasgupta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.94
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Peter Hong

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tho Bui (Briar) - Expected: 22:78

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Gardner (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Bruner (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Fritz

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Picarelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Oscilio) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Wenger (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs DANIEL WILLIAMS (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.53
R4	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brandon Dunkirk

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Walker (Briar) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Cawvey (Briar) - Expected: 22:78

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Ray (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ray Kruse

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs William Garrison (Briar) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.