Dorinthea at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Dorinthea

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Zachary Henneous

36th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.7

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sheena Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Neal B (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Shehan (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Larry Durham (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Justin Anthony (Oscilio) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Cawvey (Briar) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Dandikar (Dromai) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.00
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.09
R7	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.75
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Marc Hansen

57th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Oscilio) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Brannick (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Nguyen (Dromai) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Josh Bibb (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Indie Hansen (Briar) - Expected: 25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sean Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Larry Durham (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.11
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Casey Picarelli

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Fritz (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Shen (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Shimon Dasgupta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kaileb Shipman (Oscilio) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Schumacher (Briar) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.22
R6	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.