Bravo, Flattering Showman at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City

Bravo, Flattering Showman

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ethan Phillips

3rd • 8-2-0

60%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

Deck

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Chall (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Shehan (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Justin Anthony (Oscilio) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Darin Key (Enigma) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.71
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.53
R10	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Allen Towery

5th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kenneth Lyle (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stew Fraser (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Gohl (Oldhim) - Expected: 68:32

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Neal B

32nd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jason Brannick (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Henneous (Dorinthea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Carrington (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Devine (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Connor Babcock (Oldhim) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Shen (Oldhim) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.48
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Shimon Dasgupta

35th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Trey Herring (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Casey Picarelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Indie Hansen (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Devine (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.21
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Joseph Wenger

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Blake Freeman (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Fritz (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Syndi Beloate (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs William Garrison (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Fai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.76
R6	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jacen Whitlock

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Battles (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Elijah Marshall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.