Iyslander at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Iyslander

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Seon Tompkins

43rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Arnold (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mason Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Gohl (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tony Stobbe (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Gardner (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.65
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Nathaniel Lansangan

60th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

5.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Maxson (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dustin De Loach (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kirby Hill (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Maggert (Enigma) - Expected: 9:91, underdog victory

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kaileb Shipman (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs JACOB BOWEN (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Win	✗	0.91	2.16
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.81
R7	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Ray

66th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Darin Key (Enigma) - Expected: 9:91

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Dunkirk (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gregory Smith (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Zackary Young (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs PJ Kelley (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Martinez (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Christiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Sean Baker

67th • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacen Whitlock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Carter Sissell (Fai) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Gill (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Marc Hansen (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: 9:91

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-

Bailey Kehret

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Day (Teklovossen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Todd France (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Enigma) - Expected: 9:91

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Teklovossen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dakota Meier

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Massey (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Stange (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Cawvey (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Donovan Mitchell

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chad Garr (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Devine (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Warner (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Shawn Adams

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Senokossoff (Oscilio) - Expected: 19:81

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.