Chane at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Chane

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

JACOB BOWEN

44th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs EVAN SERRAGE (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs AUSTIN BAYNES (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kirby Hill (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Cawvey (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Sorensen (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.80
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.96
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Zackary Young

59th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs William Marshall (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Charles Poe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Carter Sissell (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Ray (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Emilio Alvarez Harris (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Richard Moore (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Cawvey (Briar) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jacob Bader

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Blake Freeman (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Chall (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Nguyen

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jaryd Beebe (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.