Enigma at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026 — FaB-Results

Enigma

Enigma

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

5th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

Iyslander

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Ray (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

Briar

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Walker (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Oldhim

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Connor Babcock (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Olympia

R4

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Hollermann (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Benji, the Piercing Wind

R5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Oscilio

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio) - Expected: 66:34

Oldhim

100:0

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Benji, the Piercing Wind

R9

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.47
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R9	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

11th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

Oscilio

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ty Hicks (Oscilio) - Expected: 66:34

Dromai

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 23:77

Blaze, Firemind

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Martin Cox (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 76:24

Briar

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Logan Petersen (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Florian

R5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mason Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Briar

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Hine (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Blaze, Firemind

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Devine (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 76:24

Lexi

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

37th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

Blaze, Firemind

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Gieder (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 76:24

Enigma

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Garrett Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Blaze, Firemind

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cody Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 76:24

Dromai

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Dromai) - Expected: 23:77

Oscilio

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Oscilio) - Expected: 66:34

Benji, the Piercing Wind

R6

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Azalea

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Steven Cawyer (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Olympia

R8

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Isaac Hollermann (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

56th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

Chane

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs William Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Dromai

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Dandikar (Dromai) - Expected: 23:77

Zen

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Maxson (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Azalea

R4

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Cawyer (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Briar

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Landon De Loach (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Rhinar

R6

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Briar

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Sorensen (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Dromai

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dromai) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.81
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

61st • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

Briar

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Briar

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Raine Karan (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Iyslander

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bailey Kehret (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

Benji, the Piercing Wind

R4

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Levia

R5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Azalea

R6

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Steven Cawyer (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Briar

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tho Bui (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Iyslander

90:10

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sean Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.05
R4	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.14

Addison Woodward-Parrish

71st • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

Briar

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Aurora

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emery Powell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Lexi

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs PJ Kelley (Lexi) - Expected: 62:38

Oscilio

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Oscilio) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Boltyn

R5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs DANIEL WILLIAMS (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Enigma

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs jacob jacob (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Briar

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Buster Sexton (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Nuu

R8

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Gardner (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

73rd • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

Blaze, Firemind

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Gill (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Briar

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Kenyon (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Blaze, Firemind

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Gieder (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 76:24

Blaze, Firemind

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Martin Cox (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 76:24

Briar

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Trey Herring (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Enigma

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Blaze, Firemind

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Emilio Alvarez Harris (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Oldhim

100:0

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Adler Hansen (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (5.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

Briar

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Rhinar

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Aurora

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Nuu

R4

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Gardner (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Iyslander

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9, favorite upset

Dash

R6

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Dong (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Boltyn

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs DANIEL WILLIAMS (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Loss	✓	0.91	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

Briar

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gregory Smith (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Dromai

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai) - Expected: 23:77

Rhinar

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Hong (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

Florian

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Briar

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kenneth Lyle (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Oscilio

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Oscilio) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Garrett Williams

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

Azalea

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Victor Nguyen (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Enigma

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Teddy Olson (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fai

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Dromai

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 23:77

Briar

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Arnold (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Briar

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gregory Smith (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Briar

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.