Olympia at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Olympia

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kyle McKeough

24th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christopher McQuary (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steven Cawyer (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Clayton Dell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Neal B (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Hollermann

53rd • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dan Mui (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Hine (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mike Murray (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Darin Key (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Dandikar (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Clayton Dell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Teddy Olson (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chad Heuschober

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emilio Alvarez Harris (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tony Stobbe (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ty Hicks (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Martinez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Elijah Marshall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ender Hansen (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Josh Bibb

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dustin De Loach (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Hook (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Marc Hansen (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stew Fraser

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Noah Fogle (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Micky Jacks

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Dandikar (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.