Oldhim at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026 — FaB-Results

Oldhim

Oldhim

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

9th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.2

Diff

Oscilio

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Oscilio) - Expected: 43:57

Aurora

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Muhidin Grosonja (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Dromai

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Dandikar (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Dromai

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Oscilio

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Justin Anthony (Oscilio) - Expected: 43:57

Arakni, Solitary Confinement

R6

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Trip Hargrove (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Olympia

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Enigma

0:100

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Darin Key (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.75
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

16th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

Briar

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Martinez (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Blaze, Firemind

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Hook (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

Dromai

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Dromai

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Minh Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Dromai

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Dromai

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mike Murray (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Levia

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Briar

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Indie Hansen (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.32

Brandon Stolzer

18th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

Iyslander

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sean Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Iyslander

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Adams (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Briar

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Dromai

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Oscilio

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio) - Expected: 43:57

Blaze, Firemind

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Devine (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Briar

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Bravo, Flattering Showman

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Neal B (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.28
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.65

51st • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

Zen

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Maxson (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Briar

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Brown (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Iyslander

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Seon Tompkins (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Allen Towery (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 32:68

Briar

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Cawvey (Briar) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Oscilio

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jon Gibson (Oscilio) - Expected: 43:57

Dromai

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mike Murray (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Fai

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Fai) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.90
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

74th • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

Briar

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Geoffrey Hunt (Briar) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Dromai

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Chall (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Nuu

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Gardner (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Blaze, Firemind

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dustin De Loach (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

Boltyn

R6

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs DANIEL WILLIAMS (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Zen

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Enigma

0:100

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs jacob jacob (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Briar

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Sorensen (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Dorinthea

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Casey Picarelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Riptide

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cody Blackmore (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Oscilio

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio) - Expected: 43:57

Dromai

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mike Murray (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Briar

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tho Bui (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Bravo, Flattering Showman

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Neal B (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.28
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

Briar

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Schumacher (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Briar

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Garrison (Briar) - Expected: 80:20

Enigma

0:100

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Darin Key (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

Olympia

R4

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Josh Bibb (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Rhinar

R5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Neal B (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

dropped • 1-0-0

0%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

Dromai

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs AUSTIN BAYNES (Dromai) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (0.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.