Oscilio at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Oscilio

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kevin Murphy

1st • 10-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Dahm (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kirby Hill (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 83:17

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Josef Mendez (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Shen (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

R11

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.32
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.68
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.45
R11	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Hamilton

12th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Nguyen (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Battles (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tho Bui (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mara Faris (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Darin Key (Enigma) - Expected: 34:66

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Pankaj Bhojwani

21st • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Sorensen (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Travis Yeo (Fai) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Teddy Olson (Enigma) - Expected: 34:66

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sean Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 81:19

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs JACOB BOWEN (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.22
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Jonah Overholt

27th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Marc Hansen (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Ray (Iyslander) - Expected: 81:19

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Beam (Enigma) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Dahm (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Indie Hansen (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Rhinar) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

David Senokossoff

28th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shawn Adams (Iyslander) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Ford (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Devine (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Witt Lucas (Rhinar) - Expected: 73:27

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Trip Hargrove (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.40
R8	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jon Gibson

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mike Murray (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Fritz (Rhinar) - Expected: 73:27

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emery Powell (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Enigma) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Carter Sissell (Fai) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Gohl (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.03
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.93
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Justin Anthony

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Martin Cox (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 83:17

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Josh Bibb (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Zachary Henneous (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Kaileb Shipman

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Lyons (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Buster Sexton (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Millwee (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Casey Picarelli (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Iyslander) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Nick Webb

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs DANIEL WILLIAMS (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Martinez (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Battles (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Nate Kimbrel

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs BEN LADWIG (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Marshall (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Duggan (Fai) - Expected: 46:54

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Warner

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Darren Rennie (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Bray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 83:17

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Iyslander) - Expected: 81:19

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

BEN LADWIG

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nate Kimbrel (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dahm (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ty Hicks

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jamie Seaborn (Enigma) - Expected: 34:66

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chad Heuschober (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.