Aurora at Sunday Showdown: Kansas City 2026

Aurora

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Muhidin Grosonja

42nd • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shimon Dasgupta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Maggert (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emilio Alvarez Harris (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Hine (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Duggan (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Trip Hargrove (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ender Hansen (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Clayton Dell

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jason Dutch (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dane Dickson (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Trip Hargrove (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gregory Smith (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Hollermann (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emery Powell

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jon Gibson (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Siegfried

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Raine Karan (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Serrage (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ender Hansen (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Carrington (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.