Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

37 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kenny Tran

3rd • 9-3-0

67%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Leon Schmidtke (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mason Galvan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raj Parikh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.25
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.35
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.74
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R10	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.55
R12	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Randy Davis

11th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kazuya Nakata (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Roman Pinegin (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs CYK Lionel (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	1.45
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.17
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.54
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Toh

23rd • 7-3-0

90%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ChangSheng Sze Tho (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cristerson Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Naoki Endo (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs masaru okuda (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dagan White (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.17
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.42
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.48
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Mirko Dolce

24th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Petry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ged Felipe Santos (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Taotao Chu (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.48
R9	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R10	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Vincent Lim

25th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yuuki Sakata (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: 86:14

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yoshihiko Kato (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jo Yana (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kai Pickett (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 창건 곽 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.36
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.36
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.42
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Hayden Jeanson

28th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Naoki Mikami (Lexi) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs CYK Lionel (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Leon Schmidtke (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	1.16
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.14
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.36
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.31
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.47
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Wong

74th • 6-3-1

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Florian) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Alex Mihilli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Lo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Cristerson Chee (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Timothy Teo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.52
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Draw	✓	0.66	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.36
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.47
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Kanata Ishimaru

95th • 4-6-0

40%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Keith Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Rath (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

0:100

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.36
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Aoi Koganei

100th • 4-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

5.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Thomas (Vynnset) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Oh Oh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Carlo Luis Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs 政大板谷 (Vynnset) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Koki Mori (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (6.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.67
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Darren Taing

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Carlo Ople (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kazuaki Fukui (Florian) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.12
R5	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.44
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.25
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Samuel Coffey

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Josh Lind (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Lo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rodrigo Canejo (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.53
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Tyler Kearney

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brian Lu-Trinh (Vynnset) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zack Phillips (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs ChangSheng Sze Tho (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Russell Howse (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dagan White (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.53
R9	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Marco Marcelli

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shuya Watanabe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Taotao Chu (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sean Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.47
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Joshua Rath

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael McDowell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Ward (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Muhammad Harraz Mohd Aris (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Wen Yu Thye (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.47
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matt Rogers

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Terra) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jude Cornett (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Younghyun Jeong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Sam Sutherland

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs ChingHeng Lin (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs ikuhiro mameta (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

haruka sonoda

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Tham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Samed Demir

dropped • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Florian) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 雅貴大場 (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs SOSUKE TAKAI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Koki Mori (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.32
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.52
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Frederick Governale

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs zion moore (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs masaru okuda (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peng Joon (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Willem Van Den Broek (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	0.83
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Klein Tian

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shane Johnstone (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs SOSUKE TAKAI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Mat Himmelman

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joel Guzman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	1.45
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Josh Lind

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Darnell Dickerson (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ryosuke Urase

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs William Pearlman (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Alexander Vore

dropped • 2-2-1

60%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Rath (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Dennis Zhang (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Dennis Zhang

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs EIKI SUGAI (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Alexander Vore (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Chia Yong Teck

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

0:100

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs MASAYA IWASAKI (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cody Dennhardt (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R2	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Jesse Hudak

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul Johnson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yuen Peir Teo (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cody Broten (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

0:100

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Cho (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

ikuhiro mameta

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Bråss (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Eric Gaudreault

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

95:5

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 優吾中村 (Dash) - Expected: 94:6

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Max McLean (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alissa Ellingson (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Brian Lorenz

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Henry Van Den Broek (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Kin Bong Ernie Wong

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Dela Torre (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Ravi Sharma

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cody Broten (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Katsakis

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Victor Mercado

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Lewis (Terra) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Zachary Cauchi

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 창건 곽 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

0:100

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Henrique Gouvêa (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Luis Gustavo Lobo Rodriguez

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs WAI KIT LO (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brenna Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs SOSUKE TAKAI (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Thomas Bailey Galbraith

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.