Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Bravo, Flattering Showman (SAGE)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tristan Del Pako

42nd • 7-3-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Keito Onose (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rodrigo Canejo (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 洋介小池 (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.64
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Takamasa Kamei

62nd • 6-4-0

40%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Keith Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Oldhim) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Rath (Oldhim) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 雅之高橋 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Law Wen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.04
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bart Horré

69th • 6-4-0

20%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Keith Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hiroyuki Yamamoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Raj Parikh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kano) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alexis VALENTIN (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sean Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Alissa Ellingson (Dromai) - Expected: 87:13

30:70

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Leon Schmidtke (Kano) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

Meta Fit

20% (2/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.18
R10	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.82

Kohaku Ishimaru

92nd • 5-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Waynne Tan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Bertrand (Dromai) - Expected: 87:13

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Armand Miguel Medina (Dash) - Expected: 90:10

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jo Yana (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Frederick Governale (Oldhim) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs John Hathaway (Florian) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Dash	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.06
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.52

Pablo Pintor

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Johnny Zen (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 17:83

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Koki Mori (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.09
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Sergio Bravo Aranda

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 暁柴野 (Florian) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ken Sawada (Riptide) - Expected: 91:9

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.87
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.10
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

聡本田

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nick McGrath (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Giovanni Prinzivalli (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maximilian Bültel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs ZongRu Wu (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

小林孝

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ikuhiro mameta (Oldhim) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Oldhim) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ricardo Rua (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.