Sunday Showdown: Yokohama 2026 - Dorinthea (SAGE)

Dorinthea

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mikko Pena

59th • 6-4-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 81:19

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cláudio de Salles Pupo Dias (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.18
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.92
R10	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Hajime Okada

110th • 2-8-0

30%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Konoka Takai (Florian) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yuta Maruo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs zion moore (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Chua (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Saw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Koki Mori (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs 暁柴野 (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

30% (3/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R9	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Rachel Stoddard

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cheng Chun-You (Dash) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Tang (Lexi) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Rabchenia (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Iyslander) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

TAKUYA KOJIMA

dropped • 3-5-0

38%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Piper (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Petry (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ken Kuwahara (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Chris Saw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Nils Klaper

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mikko Salmi (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Yuki Takayasu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.59
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.83
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

KAZUMA SUZUKI

dropped • 2-5-0

14%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs masaru okuda (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Phil Hensley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 12:88

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Dromai) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.04
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

tomoya kitagawa

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ZongRu Wu (Iyslander) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matt Q (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oldhim) - Expected: 89:11

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Logan King (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

RYOSUKE NAKAMURA

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 貴史石原 (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Yoshida Yoshinobu (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Yu Cheng Lai

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Murphy (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Muhidin Grosonja (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Natalie Hathaway

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pietro Gerletti (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.